Oil-Past, Present-Future?

rubycodez

Mon Mar 06 17:55:10 -0800 2006

manage

I'm wondering how expensive hydrocarbon fuel has to become to force us to go whole-hog into alternatives - three time current prices? four times? or does that just make us go into burning all availble hydrocarbon (coal, shale/sand oil) for which there is centuries of supply, but the world ends up looking like a "Harkonnen planet"?

catch 22 with the alternatives

zogger

Mon Mar 06 19:51:19 -0800 2006

manage

There are a couple of catch 22s with using alternatives, I'll fixate on solar PV here for brevity.. One, they depend on finite resources to build. We can build throw away toys, or we can invest in the future. We have enough resources for one or the other, not both, not really. Bread and cicuses and procrastination are a much easier political sell than actually "doing something about it". It's easier to just keep saying decade after decade that we will throw a little more R and D at it, rather than taking what you have and going into mass production, at the expense of other things. Or people contemplating it will say "just one more year, I'll see if it gets cheaper/better". There's a limit to that now, one most didn't anticipate in years past.

As oil and metals and plastics and other critical minerals go up in cost, we might see a DROP in how affordable the alternatives are, *despite* tech efficiency advances. In other words, there's a sweet spot on actually swinging into mass production, and, IMO, we passed it two years ago with the explosive rise in oil/other resources prices and vastly increased demand for pure silicon and other tangible raw materials. The prices for everything are going up faster than efficiency rates are being developed. Panels were a much better deal economically a few years back (and I was telling people to buy thyem then, too) then they are now. And how much will they cost next year if there's another huge upswing in war in the middle east and venezuela switcvhes to the euro, and etc? will tech efficiencies match such geopolitical/economic swings? I doubt it. of course, that would affect normal grid electrical prices as well, but you reach a point where joe average just will not have the extra scratch to swing it, seeing as how most joe averages are about maxed out credit now anyway.

Alternatively, looking at it sideways, anytime is a good time. They are still a good deal if you value actually owning your own means of electrical generation and controlling that, rather than relying on influences totally outside your own control. That's an intangible that is hard to do a cost analysis on in general terms.

I know I *want power* all the time from now until the mysterious future no matter what, so we "invested" in both solar and wind and fuel generators. Grid juice is still cheaper (marginally), but I own some alternatives now, and don't have to totally rely on others, and it's hard to get a cost/benefits/ROI figure on "insurance" like that...it's worth the premium based on priorities. I look at it as a long term tangible "stocks" investment that will and does pay me a daily dividend.

Two, they depend on stable and low inflationary currencies (not even close to happening now) and viable markets so that sales are possible (how long can deficit spending continue, and how long will foreign sources fund the US government and how long can the war on middle class jobs go on in the US, etc), and those depend on stable governments and lower international tension, so as to avoid speculative investment swings. Too much "boom and bust" cycle is not good for emerging techs that are meant for long haul "civilization saving" purposes, they require a bit more of a steady hand and long range view of things past "this quarter profits" mentality..

We have never had to face such a situation as humans before. We always could look ahead and be almost guaranteed things would be getting better, right up until the last century. All bets are off. We've become highly dependent on fossil fuels for most everything, our entire society revolves around it, and we concurrently developed the military means where one single individual human being (in several nations now) has the power to about completely b0rk the planet.

How nuts will things get as resources get more scarce and what remains gets diverted more and more to advanced military technology and endeavors?

sorry, rambled a little...how me pea brane works... reminds me of that PBS show called "connections"

catch 22 with the alternatives

Spider

Tue Mar 07 19:24:25 -0800 2006

manage

From ZPEnergy.com:  Headline reads:- High Efficiency Solar Cell Breakthrough.

"A team of scientists led by University of Johannesburg scientist Professor Vivian Alberts achieved the breakthrough after 10 years of research.  The panels are able to generate enough energy to run stoves, geysers, lights, TV's, fridges, computers - in short all the mod cons of a modern house".

"Made from a unique photo-responsive alloy only (approx.) 5 microns thick. (Silicon panels are 350 microns thick ).  Can operate on virtually all flexible surfaces, which means it could have a host of other applications".   (Maybe electric cars ?)

Could this be the answer to energy problems? Think I read somewhere that they are going to manufacture these "solar panels" in Germany.

Have to replace oil somehow.

catch 22 with the alternatives

proletariat

Wed Mar 08 20:45:17 -0800 2006

manage

Good post.  Don't forget, though, that there's lots of room left for conservation and increased efficiency.