Oil production limit reached: expert

atrius

Mon Jul 10 01:34:12 -0700 2006

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Has anyone else wondered if stories like these are sometimes designed to drive prices even higher?

Oil production limit reached: expert

the womble

Mon Jul 10 06:22:20 -0700 2006

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Of course they are.

Look at this story. The expert is a former executive of the National Iranian Oil Company. Both his former employer and his country (especially right now) have an interest in a high oil price.

He also says "Some huge companies don't even know what is happening". One thing the big oil companies are good at is forward planning. Shell invented formal scenario planning and are still the experts (even though they are not necessarily good at much else!).

He also does not understand market economics. The world has never had as much oil as it wants. The price has always fallen or risen so supply matched demand. That will continue to happen.

What may happen is that rising demand and supply constraints will mean that the price rises so that less is consumed. That is not news.

Oil production limit reached: expert

Unomi

Mon Jul 10 04:33:54 -0700 2006

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It is worth noting that most products based on oil are produced in mass-production. This said, it should also be obvious that overproducing is wasting oil by the minute. This should be easily avoided by the factories but they would simply answer: "Not my problem to solve".

As long as there is no substantial 'limit' towards production, there is no hold on oil consumption.......

- Unomi -

Oil production limit reached: expert

Beryllium Sphere(r)

Mon Jul 10 09:24:16 -0700 2006

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Overproduction does cost money, so the only reason management allows it is to cover for inefficiencies in distribution and errors in forecasting.

Huge and often successful efforts in lean production, inventory management and just-in-time logistics have been bringing production closer to consumption over the last few decades.

Now, if you were to point toward overconsumption...

Oil production limit reached: expert

rubycodez

Mon Jul 10 10:20:29 -0700 2006

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load of hooey;  plenty of oil in ground, plenty of refineries that could be converted to run on "sour" rather than sweet light crude, plenty of room for engineering improvements.  Big oil loves the situation we have now, their profits are flying to the sky.   the only question is how to get their cronies out of power in washington so we can pursue clean and cheaper energy, of which there is no shortage in the universe either.

I suggest a jousting match between you and ...

Indulis Bernsteins

Mon Jul 10 18:20:25 -0700 2006

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Matthew R. Simmons "Founder and Chairman of the world's largest energy investment banking company, Simmons & Co. International."

He *does* think oil has hit peak production. Other links to papers he has presented and to the ABC (Australia) radio program I heard him on. He has presented to the Chinese govt and the DoD in the USA.  By the way, my money is on him winning.

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/nationalinterest/stories/2005/1388742.htm

argue with a bean counter over science and engineering?, the man is completely unarmed 8D

rubycodez

Mon Jul 10 20:44:26 -0700 2006

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Simmons calls for some good things, like knowing and reporting true reserves by the "big players" so better decisions and planning can be made.    He is worried about declining natural gas supply for N. America.  But can he know the merits of solutions to science and engineering problems?  And fossil fuel "shortage" is just that.  There's certainly no shortage of hydrocarbons on earth that can be put in the sausage grinder and cut short for natural gas, and a bit longer for gasoline and kerosene.  And of course there's no shortage of alternate energy sources, from centuries of fission fuel with the right kind of reactor, to rapidly renewable plant matter sources,  to that big ol' Mr. Fusion in the sky that pumps out 400 bilion billion megawatts

argue with a bean counter over science and engineering?, the man is completely unarmed 8D

Indulis Bernsteins

Mon Jul 10 21:11:59 -0700 2006

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So in the joust you'd get the I-beam and he'd get a sharpened HB pencil ;-)

I think he said the same thing about the quantities of hydrocarbons  still being there, just that extraction becomes more difficult and expensive.  He was predicting prices per barrel in the $400 to $500 range.  So we can continue to burn, as long as we're willing to pay.  The nice thing would be the end of the "resource price is the cost of extraction" mentality which I liken to someone putting a value on your bank account based on the transaction fees it takes to empty it.

It is worth listening to him being interviewed- did you check his presentations out?

argue with a bean counter over science and engineering?, the man is completely unarmed 8D

rubycodez

Tue Jul 11 19:27:55 -0700 2006

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hey, I still have my HB filled mechanical pencil for drafting on polyester film from my pre-CADD days.  and we could each use a stack of 14-7/8"  fanfold greenbar paper as a shield!

I'll check out his presentations, like to here about production and reserve/planning issues.

 We're already seeing some breakthrough technology to reduce that $400 cost for hard to process fuel.