Goldman-Sachs has done an updated
BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) economic projection out
to 2050 and revised their earlier estimations. By then, the US
will have dropped to number three, overtaken by China in the lead
followed by India.
"Productivity growth will help India sustain over 8% growth
until 2020 and become the second largest economy in the world,
ahead of the US, by 2050, Goldman Sachs has said, scaling up
estimates of the country's prospects in its October 2003
research paper widely known as the BRICs report. "..more
there
I'm wondering if we'll someday see uniquely Asian fields of science and engineering, thus far the world mostly works on innovations based on those from western civilization (there was a time over a thousand years ago when the opposite was true).
I don't see it. As long as we have the Internet and Global connectivity, how could there be anything "uniquely anywhere"? As soon as anybody creates anything technological that is useful to somebody, they have it. 1000 years ago you could have essentially isolated cultures. 100 years ago you could have cultures isolated by poverty, but now, barring some kind of catastrophe everything is known all over very quickly. How can you tell that something is uniquely Western? In fact what would a current or past "uniquely Western" field of science or Technology be? Is the Walkman a "uniquely Asian" technology because it was invented in Japan? If a computer scientist in China solves P=NP is that uniquely Asian?
Now, I could see most of the science and especially technology advances coming from India and China, in fact I think that is almost here now since that is where all the development money is going. (Have you seen GE or such open any new billion dollar R&D centers anywhere but India or China in the last 10 years?) the new Bell labs and all the jobs they create will be in Asia I think, but I don't know how that means things will only be done there and nowhere else (that is, be -unique-). Science and Technology are now global, a contributing part of the global culture. thats why jobs can be moved so easily.
We had global postal delivery a hundred years ago, the question is the same. Answer is that something like the walkman is an improvement on the western invention of tape recorder and stereo sound system, but not a new invention like say something that could create all the sensations of a musical performance directly in the brain. The Walkman is just an improvement on a western invention and idea, and just having the information about one on the internet doesn't mean you can even build one (having a manufacturing facility full of western inventions like injection molding, integrated circuit fab, fasteners, soldering (that's ancient roman, by the way) means maybe you can.
Integrated circuits, nuclear power, digital computers, microwave ovens, the laser, etc. automobiles, internal combustion engines, generators etc. are all western inventions, but paper, gunpowder, astronomy, decimal arithmetic and electroplating are NOT.
the Chinese, Arab/muslim, various African including egyptian, and Indian civilizations all stagnated themselves in the past even though they all had at one time great innovation and were pushing the forefronts of science and technology. Now some of them are going whole-hog into technology and engineering and R&D, but I mainly see copying western ideas and innovations, not a new thing yet.
Top Economies in 2050-China and India
Goldman-Sachs has done an updated BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) economic projection out to 2050 and revised their earlier estimations. By then, the US will have dropped to number three, overtaken by China in the lead followed by India.
"Productivity growth will help India sustain over 8% growth until 2020 and become the second largest economy in the world, ahead of the US, by 2050, Goldman Sachs has said, scaling up estimates of the country's prospects in its October 2003 research paper widely known as the BRICs report. "..more there
Only the original 2003 report is online, here is the preview page, the (large) PDF is linked off of there: Global Economics Paper No. 99: Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050