large scale evacuations

zogger

Wed Feb 21 16:27:51 -0800 2007

manage

You can't, except as an individual. You can get some folks out, but not all, all the hurricanes, etc, have proven this. Even with days of lead time it is hard, with a sudden emergency-say a major unexpected alleged "terrorist" attack leading to widespread damage, etc-it can't be done. the roads would get plugged up swiftly then foot traffic only with hungry hopeless starving  and desperate refugees. Happened all over the planet before, no reason to think it will stop happening.

The technique for an individual though is well understood and practiced in the preparedness community, (yes, I mean it IS practiced, too, discretly, like a "drill"). First, you have a mindset you are NOT of the herd. That's the most important, sort of like open source, you either "get it" or you don't with preparedness issues. Grok/no grok. Most folks-no grok. Too bad.

 Next, for this example of emergency no notice evac, it is called "know your terrain". You find all the off the wall goofy road-like areas that aren't normally used or accessed, railroad right of ways, powerline jeep roads, shortcuts across parks-whatever. They are all over and rarely used.  Depending on the emergency is how rough you are willing to go or how many normal driving regs you might need to "bend", or which vehicle you use even,  for example, you might need.uhh.bolt cutters maybe. A heavy truck and a willingness to *use it* and so on, use your imagination there. Mayber a powerful dirt bike instead of your commuter car-whatever might work for the situation you need to anlyse in advance, not think up on the fly completely. And you pay attention to the news, and evac in advance of the thundering herds before the roads get closed or choked off from panic driving and wrecks, etc. I guarantee you that the iPod wearers not listening to the radio will not the get the news as fast as dedicated radio listeners for example. and minutes can well count, that might be all the diff in the world of getting stuck or getting out-minutes.

  The theory is, if it is a false alarm-if it turns out to have been not such a big deal-say the hurricane at the last minute slides to the right, whatever, oh well, you get a little bonus 2 day vacation. You never get annoyed with yourself or angry because you went ahead and evacced. Better to be wrong six times for the positive than wrong ONE time and get stuck.

 If it is warranted, a real nasty emergency and your plans and preps and actions paid off -SWELL-good, you got out.

 There are no do overs with emergency evacuations-you either get out and don't get poison gassed or destroyed or inundated or radiated or burnt or stuck with the rioting mob, or you fail it. Two results only.

  A lot of people once in the preparedness mindset for some years finally realise that it might be better to just permanently "evacuate in advance", and that is the exact term used as well, at your own speed and with all your stuff intact, and just get it over, just move to a safer place where it is much less likely you'd have to evac in the first place.

Kinda what I have done.....

As for huge cities-you can't emergency evac, you can't rely on it, no city has good enough infrastructure to do it, and no where are there entire huge 'backup cities" just sitting around waiting for you. They do NOT exist. That's another thing people forget, when dealing with HUGE cities-there just isn't the backup to deal with millions of people in a fast moving emergency. It just doesn't exist. It is nowhere. The 'government" cannot "save" millions of people if it  is a huge emergency and the roads are borked and people are on foot and especially if they are hurt and panicing. They turn into refugees, and it just sucks bad and there is no happy ending for a lot of those folks-happens daily over the "developing" world, just we don't see it much, it is just little names for 20 seconds on the news.

  It is impossible to get everyone out of medium to large cities *fast*, and perhaps most of the people might get stuck-there are just too many wildcards to predict or narrow down, because you have no generic emergency or generic city.. "You" as the authorities can attempt it, that's it. And mostly judging by past track records, the *best* they can do with days in advance warning is around a C- effort, which mean a lot can get out, but a lot can get hurt, katrina is a prime exact example there.. 24 hours or less notice, it gets real bad. An emergency "GO GO GO just start moving now!!"= widescale disaster and failure. A lot of misery to put it mildly.

 For practical example, in a very difficult place to evac from,  I know of  a few guys in NYC, not rich enough for their own helo, but something good enough. Making a sober assessment of a lot of people with only a few ways in and out of an island, they know in a disaster that getting out might be next to impossible the normal way-so they keep small boats stashed where if they have to they can walk out to the boat, then evac by sea. and by small I mean small enough, like little powerboats, sea kayaks, like that. Tiny sail boats.  Can't (I won't, this is real but I'll make it vague anecdotal) get better than that really compared to the subway down and gridlock in the cab stuck streets. move overland, climb over cars-whatever, get to where the big wet road is and leave that way.

 And then they have a planned landing area, where a spare cheap used car kept stocked with food and gear is stored. Total cost there, perhaps a month in manhattan scale rents. That's all it takes to have a decent emergency plan, that and the free and Free "mindset"..

  That's an example of contingency planning that 99.999% of humans won't do, but the smart ones will (and have, I can 100% guarantee that as fact), if they are living in a very risky area or are simply forced to be there every day from work, etc..Another example, I know of some folks that keep folding bicyclers in the car trunk-just in case the roads become blocked, you can then carry your bike around obstructions and ride down the mediumor something. throw it over the access road fences and be on your way, etc. One guy I know is a long haul trucker, keeps a very small motorized dirt bike in his rig-worst comes to worst, a single tank of fuel can get you FAR away if you have off road capabilities. Hint: heavy wire cutters a good idea there as well to keep stashed in the toolbox in your ride. And water. and some camping food, like freeze dried stuff. and a small medkit. And..whatever.

This is a huge subject, can't possibly go into all of it in a single post, but it is something I have put a ton of thought and effort into, sorta my real gig as it were.

large scale evacuations

femto

Wed Feb 21 22:52:41 -0800 2007

manage

The interesting thing is that Sydney has relatively few routes in and out.

• To the east is the Pacific Ocean.
• To the north is major bay/river (the Hawkesbury River) with a road bride (actually pair of road bridges a few metres apart) and a rail bridge.  Upstream of the wide part of the river is a major national part with impassable terrain and around three minor roads though it.  The northern approaches to Sydney were completely cut by a minor bush fire only a few weeks ago.
  
• To the west is  a mountain range (the Great Dividing Range) with two roads over it (Great Western Highway and Bells Line of Road) a railway line runs next to the highway.  This is some of the most inhospitable terrain around, criss crossed by gorges and cliffs.  It's why the Wollemi Pine was able to remain undiscovered 2 hours from the CBD of a major city.
• To the south is another major national park (The Royal National Park) with a highway (Princess Hwy), a minor road and a railway though it.  More cliffs.
  
• To the south west there is a freeway and and some minor roads and a railway.  It probably has the best terrain for cross country, but there is still at least one major gorge with a significant bridge for the freeway.

Of the above routes the terrain is mostly impassable on foot (mainly cliffs and bush) let alone any form of vehicle. An experienced navigator with maps could do it. Sydney is essentially a flat basin in a coastal mountain range. Sum total of land transport into and out off Sydney is:

• 5 freeways (2 or 3 lanes each way),
  
• 4 rail lines, generally sited next to the above freeways
• around 8 (maybe 10) minor roads, single lane each way, generally winding.

There is always the open sea if one has a boat and feels brave, but on land that's it for 4.2 million people. 

With a perfect evacuation plan and no hitches, it MIGHT be possible to empty Sydney in around three days.  Probably closer to a week or more.

My pick would be a mountain bike, an inflatable mattress, some rope and a bush tucker book.

Ultimately the best defence is the Australian "she'll be right mate" attitude.  Who cares if disaster strikes?  We'll deal with it if and when it does.  There are plenty of mountains to climb if a tsunami hits.  F**k the terrorists.  There's more of us than them.  They can kill a few of us, but we'll get them before they get all of us.  There's plenty of bush with edible stuff if you know which ones to eat.  The aborigines survived okay for 50,000+ years and kangaroo tastes quite nice.

So relax zogger, open a tinnie, put your feet up and be careful not to start a bush fire with the BBQ!  :-) :-)

Dick Cheney expected to cause gridlock in Sydney

Alan

Wed Feb 21 23:00:29 -0800 2007

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There's no city in the world (except perhaps Pyongyang) that isn't operating at the edge of commuting capacity. It would be ruinously expensive to build the ability to evacuate in a short time. In the Cold War, Moscow and probably some other places had large bomb shelters that supposedly could shelter much of the population. But msot of these are derelict or converted to other uses now.

Anyway, what kind of disaster? For a meteor strike, big earthquake, or a nuclear missile, minutes of warning at best. Sydney's earthquake risk is pretty low anyway. A tsunami, up to a few hours. Probably long enough for most people to get to high ground, unless it's a "Deep Impact" style mile-high wave.

Dick Cheney expected to cause gridlock in Sydney

Unomi

Thu Feb 22 05:21:23 -0800 2007

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Next to what Zogger wrote:

Prepare for warmth. Dry wear. Light etc. Oil lamps are bad for the environment, but are a good have when electricity breaks down. No matches, but those military grade fire-suppliers. Hi-tech, low volume, easy to stash away. Take some lightweight plastic foil with you, some square meters to shelter under when it rains. Use a tent.

Cans of food, but should be easy to eat. Some food can live for a long time and are very nutricious without taking much space: bee-pollen for example is multi-purpose and very nutricious, can be kept dry for months in just a jar. One spoon a day keeps you alive.

Water-filter. Sort out for yourself what is best in practice. But water is the first most needed to keep alive. Try to get something small, but reusable for several months.

My two cents.

- Unomi -