Do you have questions about the site? Write to bruce at perens.com .
List of all articles we've ever published.
Source Code
Developer's Documentation
RSS
XML Sitemap
XML News Sitemap
![[Valid RSS]](/images/valid-rss.png "Validate my RSS feed")
The Death of Windows
The Desktop Operating System Wars are over and Microsoft won. Microsoft's Windows, in its various forms, is the most popular computer operating system[1] in the world. It ships on over 70% of all new PCs and is projected to remain the number one OS, though in ever declining numbers, through about 2011.[2]
Through leveraging their monopoly in computer Operating Systems and Office Applications Software, Microsoft has become one the richest companies in the world -- if not in history. In the 4th fiscal quarter of 2006 the Microsoft Client division recorded revenue of $2.59 billion, a decrease of $841 million, or 25 percent, from the same amount recorded a year earlier. Net income in the division was $1.88 billion, down $780 million, or 29 percent, from the $2.66 billion profit recorded a year ago.[3]
Historically, only the Client Division (desktop OS) and Information Worker Division (MS Office) have consistantly made a profit.[4] Microsoft is desparately trying to diversify, branching into online services, games, advertising, etc. Their Herculean efforts to forestall the inevitable have paid off big in terms of $$, but they see the writing on the wall.
Windows is going away.
"World Domination. Fast." The quote is attibuted to Linus, from back in December of 1994, when asked about his plans for Linux.[5] It has turned into a meme for Linux, and often written off as a joke. It isn't a joke, it is fast becoming reality.
I'm going to pause here, just to address any Apple fans who are chomping at the bit to tell me how much better OS X is and how they're going to rule the world, if only everyone would give a Mac a try.
Yes, OS X is friendlier, prettier and easier than Windows or Linux. You're right, it is fantastic. None of that matters, it is still going the way of Windows -- away. Read on for why.
Commoditization.
The way industry works can be summed up as inspiration leads to invention. Invention leads to production and market growth. Artificial constraints in the form of patents limit growth, maximizing the return to the inventor for a short period of time. Eventually, growth gets to the point of saturation and commoditization takes over. Commoditization is where the product in question is dirt cheap, and universally available.
Walmart is the king of the retail commodity. Their entire business model is driving products to the commodity level and selling as many as possible. This is why DVD players used to be $1,000 but are now $19. Even DVD recorders are only $69.
Linux is the end result of the commoditization of operating systems. Microsoft has put great effort into redefining what is considered an "operating system" to avoid commoditization of their biggest cash cow. With revenues of $2.5 Billion per quarter for that product line alone, who can blame them? But the best they can do is forestall the inevitable.
The reality is, except for a few hard-core fanatics, people don't buy and OS for the OS. No one buys Windows XP and goes "Cool! Minesweeper!". Yes, Aero-Glass and CoreAnimation are totally cool, but they aren't why people buy an operating system. Applications are why people buy an OS.
Microsoft Windows is the number one OS on desktop PCs because Microsoft Office requires it. If it isn't office, it is one of a hundred other applications that don't work with anything else but you need to run your business. Programs like OpenOffice.org are a start, but there always seems to be one more app that business can't live without. "Linux with Open Office? Great. What about Visio, AutoCAD, Publisher and Photoshop?"
But that is rapidly fading into the past. WINE is making great strides in running native Windows applications on Linux.[6] The remaining few are migrating to Web-based apps.[7]
For example, when U.S. Income Tax time rolls around every year, people lament the lack of personal tax software that runs on Linux. But this has become a moot point with online tax preparation.
Last year I went over to turbotax.com and tried to fill out the online 1040-A and one State form using Linux. The system refused to let me continue because I wasn't using a supported configuration. I was able to successfully do my taxes when I told Konqueror to lie about the UserAgent string and claim to be Netscape on Windows 2000. It worked, with one or two minor visual glitches.
This year I tried again, and while it didn't like Firefox on Linux, it did give me the option to continue this time. It worked until it wanted to print PDFs and I didn't have Adobe Acrobat installed. KPDF didn't register with Firefox properly, so I had to download Acrobat to continue. After that, it was without a hitch. One less program I need Windows for.
This is what the computing world is moving to. The OS will be a commodity and no longer a profit center, but a cost center. Once there is no profit in it, what incentive does a company like Microsoft have to continue development? Their efforts would be better, and more profitably spent on application software and services.
Why Linux and not OS X or BSD? The GPL.
BSD licenses allow proprietary, profit-driven companies like Apple and Microsoft to stave off commoditization by cherry-picking the best parts and giving nothing in return. The GPL ensures people play fair and encourages commoditization.
OS X is too tied to Apple hardware and Steve Jobs won't let it free. Business can't adopt it en masse because Apple is a sole-source vendor, and many of them have policies against dealing with situations like that. They'd have to junk all their existing equipment and the capital investment would be prohibitive. Not to mention there is a large amount of business software that doesn't run on OS X.
Apple sees the writing on the wall. Just look at their big products today: iPod, Apple TV, iPhone, iTunes and online services. Hell, as of 2007 they aren't even Apple Computer anymore, just Apple, Inc. Yes, Mac computers are increasing in sales. But it isn't enough to matter. Apple already went down the road of licensing to clone makers and Jobs killed that but good. Even then, it has a proprietary license which forever precludes anyone but Apple from having a real stake in it.
The final straw is cost. As more and more software just works with Linux whether natively, transparently thru WINE or via a hosted solution, more and more people will use it. The simple fact is Linux is free and both OS X and Windows cost a small fortune. You also don't have to pay the horde of lawyers to keep tract of all your licenses, proofs of purchase and fancy holograms.
In the end, the OS won't matter. No one will care whether you have the latest from Microsoft, Apple or Red Hat because its really all about the applications.
Windows has won the OS war, but soon the war will end and Linux will rule the peace that follows.
* * * *
[1] To be fair, if you count embedded systems, TRON is the world's most popular OS. http://www.linuxinsider.com/story/31855.html
[2] Gartner Research. You have to pay to see the whole report.
[3] http://www.itjungle.com/breaking/bn012507-story03.html
[4] http://www.microsoftmonitor.com/archives/2004/02/two_divisions_c.html
[5] Thanks to Joe Barr for doing the leg work. http://www.xent.com/pipermail/fork/2002-January/008429.html
[6] CrossOver Office is a commercial version focusing on this market. http://www.codeweavers.com/compatibility/browse/rank/
[7] A limited version of Photoshop is going online by mid-2007. The full version runs well under WINE, thank to the efforts of Disney Animation and two other unnamed animation houses.
http://www.eweek.com/article2/0%2C3959%2C1210083%2C00.asp
http://www.webware.com/8301-1_109-9692372-2.html