I'm not sure if Marshall's sci-fi story could be
considered pre-existing art or not. But either way, his
vision of a dystopian future for the worker's class in the
United States has taken a new and extremely frightening
step. In response, in my slashdot journal, I've
announced my intention to start The
Oregon Project based on some of his ideas, with a very
reasonable pre-IPO angel investor cost (reasonable
enough to buy shares as insurance for your entire family, just in
case, but limited to 250 shares, where the IPO will be unlimited
once I get the corporation set up). I'll be setting
up a separate paypal account for this purpose later
this week, and announcing it here on Technocrat and of
course Slashdot. Initial purpose of this corporation
will be to invest in companies that use the robots, and
later on invest in land in
Cascadia and elsewhere that provides a wide
variety of natural resources.
I read Marshall's stuff a few years ago and I remember thinking that while what he described was very plausible it was ultimately not going to have the societal impact he described.
I have no doubt automating the supervisory roles is doable and profitable but I hesitate in believing that the strict automation of hiring, firing, and blackballing he describes would be tolerated. And as such could be policed in a similarly automated way. That’s just one foundational premises in a series of details I found not so compelling.
Don’t get me wrong… I think automation will continue to replace human workers in the workplace I just am not so sure it will happen so fast there will not be openings in different fields for them to go to.
I have no doubt automating the supervisory roles is doable and profitable but I hesitate in believing that the strict automation of hiring, firing, and blackballing he describes would be tolerated.
I don't really understand this statement- if "Mechanical Turk" or "Manna" or whatever the system is called is online, and networking with other copies of the same management software, why wouldn't employee records be shared, and as skills get replaced with robotics, humans be blackballed from doing certain jobs?
Don’t get me wrong… I think automation will continue to replace human workers in the workplace I just am not so sure it will happen so fast there will not be openings in different fields for them to go to.
I don't think it will be as fast as the story- in the story line, what happens in 2030 in my mind really won't happen until 2300 or so. BUT, having said that, we've already got a class of workers in the United States whose jobs were automated so fast that there haven't been openings in different fields (let alone the cost of re-education for those fields!) for them to go to.
Reading the patent, this is specific to speech recognition. When the computer needs speech to be converted into text, it farms the task out to people.
This isn't all that different from how a modern inbound call center works, with the computer directing calls to agents when it can't handle the call by itself. The main thing is that this sounds even more like mindless grunt work.
It has nothing to do with the sci-fi story where computers replace managers at a fast food restaurant. It is more like a real-life restaurant, where the cooks get their orders from a computer but are supervised by real, live managers.
The part I found interesting in the patent that did seem relevant to me was the part about classification and tracking of resources by past performance, which is exactly what the computer program in Manna does.
This patent may well be specific to speech recognition- but overall advancement comes from being able to apply parts of inventions to other uses. It was enough for me to think about, and do a minor survey on slashdot to gauge interest in, The Oregon Project (also adapted from the same story). To that end I've already opened a paypal account for selling Angel Investor stock- as I had enough people express interest in such stock to make it worth my while. I'll issue PDF-based stock certificates and start keeping a database this weekend. If I actually sell 250 initial shares, then I'll put in the work to create a non-profit corporation and an investment fund, which will then sell addtional shares at a higher price.
I have no idea whatsoever if the events in Manna will come true. But this is actually the fifth completely unrelated technological development I've seen that fits the pattern of using technology to command humans or replace human workers with technology. And I'm willing to put in a little bit of work on the side to make sure my descendants don't end up in Terrafoam. :-) Not much- it's a very risky idea that will likely not mature in my lifetime- but some.
Ignore everything but the claims. The rest can be wrong, or even misleading (as in the Apple rotary mouse patent, for the iPod.)
Ignore the claims that are dependent on other claims, which is nearly all of them. They describe possible uses for the patent, but are less broad than the independent claims.
Don't ignore the independent claims. Often claim #1 is the only thing worth reading in the entire patent.
The listings of prior art are often useful for background. If something is listed as prior art and it sounds exactly like the claims of the patent, you're missing the whole point of the patent.
So this patent is about:
1. A method for a computer system to use human assistance in performing tasks, the method comprising: automatically and under control of a first computer system, causing a task to be performed by, identifying a first and a second subtask of the task, wherein the first subtask involves speech recognition; retrieving information about past quality of results of one or more humans when previously performing subtasks other than the first subtask; using the retrieved past quality information to facilitate performance of the first subtask by one or more humans, the facilitating of the performance of the first subtask including, identifying one or more required capabilities for performance of the first subtask; dispatching the first subtask to a remote second computer system of a first human for performance by the first human, the first human identified as being one of one or more humans who have capabilities that satisfy the required capabilities for the first subtask, the retrieved past quality information including past quality information for the first human when previously performing multiple subtasks other than the first subtask, the past quality information for the first human being at least part of the capabilities of the first human that satisfy the required capabilities for the first subtask; and receiving a first result from the first human via the second computer system, the first result generated by performance of the first subtask by the first human; providing payment to the first human for the performance of the first subtask; and generating a result for the task based at least in part on the first result.
In other words, farming tasks out to people ("wherein the first subtask involves speech recognition") with some automated decision making about who is best suited for the task based on some form of performance review, and then doing an automated payment.
So I was wrong. This involves independent contractors, not full-time employees. But it's essentially Stardust@Home with micropayments rather than volunteers. And specific to speech recognition. And potentially with human ratings, rather than statistical ones.
There's another independent claim in the patent, but it's along the same lines. This is about people making a few bucks for entering text during a minute of free time, not about robot masters enslaving humans.
Amazon Patents something that looks suspiciously like Manna
Amazon has entered a patent for an automated management process, that looks suspiciously like Marshall Brain's predictions of a computer program called Manna.
I'm not sure if Marshall's sci-fi story could be considered pre-existing art or not. But either way, his vision of a dystopian future for the worker's class in the United States has taken a new and extremely frightening step. In response, in my slashdot journal, I've announced my intention to start The Oregon Project based on some of his ideas, with a very reasonable pre-IPO angel investor cost (reasonable enough to buy shares as insurance for your entire family, just in case, but limited to 250 shares, where the IPO will be unlimited once I get the corporation set up). I'll be setting up a separate paypal account for this purpose later this week, and announcing it here on Technocrat and of course Slashdot. Initial purpose of this corporation will be to invest in companies that use the robots, and later on invest in land in Cascadia and elsewhere that provides a wide variety of natural resources.