No, not the action figures, but the financial big wheels.
There seems to be a general consensus of opinion out there that
these guys and their underlings "the bankers" and
"the city" basically fumbled the play, dropped the
ball, spilt the milk, whatever euphemism you want to use.
There used to be a saying in prison, "If you're so
smart, what are you doing in here?"
The flipside of this is, as reassuring as it may be for everyone
who just watched their pensions go up in smoke to congregate and
agree that these guys made a monumental mistake, this simply is
not a logical perspective.
These MOTU didn't get where they were by being assholes,
well, not the stupid kind at least, and it completely violtates
all logic to claim that several thousand very intelligent people,
worldwide, have spent the past decade building this edifice of
re-packaged debt-as-an-asset rinse-and-repeat until every single
"asset" is its own father, uncle and grandson, and
nobody knows where to send the paternity suit to.
This is like claiming that a bunch of coders sat down to write
winamp, and everything was going really well, and then wow, one
day they woke up to find that they had unleashed Smitfraud on the
world.
Or like claiming that a bunch of guys sat down to write the US
Constitution, and ended up writing the Jolly roger cookbook.
There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY that we can have gotten to where we
are with the CDO's, CDS's, and everything esle, unless
all these people know exactly what they were doing, and achieved
everything they set out to do.
Now it may well be the case that they can claim to be
Oppenheimer, and intone "now we are destroyers of
worlds" when all they were doing was interesting science, eg
Oppy didn't pursue the career path he did because his sole
long term goal was to vapourise tens of thousands of Japanese
civilians.
However, you cannot on the one hand claim that Oppenheimer was a
genius, and then also claim that at no point did it ever occur to
him that his work would first be put to military use.
Gee, I'd like to pursue a career in developing man portable
multi-kilowatt lasers, oh cool, uncle sam is funding my research,
they did WHAT? They fired my laser at PEOPLE! Oh my GOD, how
could I possibly have foreseen this.
hmmm
I wonder why we try to teach our kids not become thieves or
habitual drug users, maybe because we have this idea that the
choices we make today influence the outcome of our lives, our
future options, our future (available) choices.
Which is great, unless we are talking about a GREAT thinker, or a
GREAT engineer, or a GREAT scientist, or a GREAT politician, or a
GREAT financier.
As soon as that happens, all of a sudden it is a whole different
ball-game, Ozzy Osborne's kids take drugs, wow, I mean, who
could possibly have seen that coming?
And in this week's episode of the Osborne's, we see
Sharon stage managing the DEA bust and selecting a new outfit for
the court hearing where the dogs and Jack are removed from the
home and placed in the care of Social Services.
No.
The current financial crisis is an edifice as complex and as
carefully crafted as the Windows 7 code base, it is simply too
artificial to be anything but the works of man, the works on man
working to a common goal.
Similarly, all the political posturing, from Gordon
"moron" Brown to Geogre "draft dodger" Bush
all claiming that they are leading their country, and their
country is leading the world, in dealing with the current
financial crisis, is equally an artifice, a work of man.
Now the IMF is in on the game too, warning that, and I quote
"the world is facing financial meltdown"
Which is all very fortunate really, because the terrorist threat
thing was starting to wear a bit thin and fraying around the
edges and the middle and everywhere else.
But luckily we all now have a global financial crisis to worry
about, and of course the biggest problem by far is
"fixing" it without drawing attention to the fact that
it is totally, completely and utterly impossible for this
financial crisis to have arisen any way other than by the
deliberate hand on man.
Let's take a look at the Bush dynasty, in the past century
this family has been advisor to President Hoover, US Senator,
married into the Walker banking family, chairman of US - China
chamber of commerce, US president, congressman and CIA director,
US President, governor of texas, governor of florida, numerous
first and second ladys, often the same person, numerous bankers,
the list goes on and on. Oh yeah, distant cousins to Washington,
Roosevelt and Coolidge too.
But, like the current financial crisis, this all happened
accidentally, stands to reason, because statistically in a
democratic country of 300 millions what are the chances
otherwise???
This shit makes the Greek / Danish / Austrian / Russian / English
royal families interbreeding look positively random and
mongrel-ish.
But hey, it is all just circumstance, and anyone who says
anything different is clearly a paranoid schizo with a tinfoil
hat innit.
The PROBLEM here, we are told by these dynastic MOTU, is all
these dead-beat hispanic types taking out 125% mortgages on
McMansions.
Of course it is, history is replete with examples of ill-educated
peons sitting down at the table with bankers and then walking
away and the bankers go to count their fingers on to find both
arms and legs are missing.
Sure, ole Pedro spent all day working construction to buy a Dodge
Ram, but he spent all night in a spiderman suit hacking the banks
computer systems and creating 125% interest only mortgage
instruments that nobody in the staff or boardroom questioned.
Just like Jimmy the heroin addict, he also has a spiderman suit,
but he hacks the White House and the Pentagon and starts a war in
Afghanistan in order to ensure his supply of smack.
It was obviously another spider-suit hacker responsible for my
new bank account that I created two weeks ago on nothing more
than a photocard driving licence for ID, being awarded an
automagic 1,500 UK pound overdraft facility, that the bank clerk
could not disable on the computer, even when I specifically asked
him to.
What?
Elite ninja spider suit robed hacker by night, semi-literate
sewerage plant worker by day, agent provocateurs too fanciful for
you?
You think maybe tens of thousands of degree qualified
professionals from all over the world and all cultures somehow
accidentally creating these financial djinns is a more credible
idea? seriously? Because I promise I won't come in your
mouth.
Or maybe we can emply occam's razor.
Everyone knew EXACTLY what they were doing, and they still do. In
fact, the mere success of their efforts is testimony to the fact
that far from being incompetent and unfit to be in charge of a
piggy bank, these people are actually extremely bloody good at
what they do... literally world class.
Merely competent people would have fucked it up totally the first
time they tried to repackage Pedro's 125% interest only
mortage for half a million as an asset and sell it back to Pedro
as his pension plan.
This is like claiming that a bunch of coders sat down to write
winamp, and everything was going really well, and then wow, one
day they woke up to find that they had unleashed Smitfraud on
the world.
Or like claiming that a bunch of guys sat down to write the US
Constitution, and ended up writing the Jolly roger cookbook.
Or like claiming that a bunch of people went to write a new
version of Linux, but instead wrote something that would destroy
your computer?
If we're going to talk about money, we should all have a
clear understanding of where
our money comes from! Seriously, this is perhaps the
clearest, most insightful explanation of how fractional reserve
banking got started and works today.
Seeing this will probably change your perspective forever...
It doesn't entirely make sense (the little bit about the
money multiplier is OK, but the rest...), and ends up in definite
conspiracy/crackpot territory. Is there a proper text
version, preferably with references? Video sucks for
reasoned consideration and critique.
I'd like to see a proper text version as well, if only to
catch all of those quotes that were scrolling into tunnel vision
space while wierd music played.
Having said that, the bit about the money multiplier (basically,
the first 30 minutes of the video) is what I'm going to give
the nephews for Christmas, along with "golden dollars".
I wonder if I can burn that video to DVD after downloading?
This is fucking boring but probably useful to say out loud:
Any impression that I at least am calling this an accident
is mistaken. Well, kinda.
The rich get richer, the western-world middle class sink lower,
polarization of riches gets sharper.... all on purpose. Creation
of instruments known to some to be bogus but sold with hype that
encouraged ignorance and false beliefs about them? On purpose.
The current consequences? The current crisis? Accident. They
didn't mean to hit this stage so quickly. It wasn't
supposed to unfold this quickly.
The nice thing about playing the technocratic angle
("it's all the fault of hackers like us") is that
we can apply forensics to the discourse around IT that shaped
power and obtain objective authority to use to interfere with the
next round. Call a spade a spade -- that's the weak link in
their chain. Those programs don't do what they are
advertised, never could, no fixing it, was objectively apparent
from the start just papered over with hype.
This is like claiming that a bunch of coders sat down to
write winamp, and everything was going really well, and then
wow, one day they woke up to find that they had unleashed
Smitfraud on the world.
You do realize, I hope, that as far as most of the line-coders
behind web 2.0 are concerned, that is what happened. Now, they
shouldn't act so surprised because the main skill they used
to get ahead was to compete among one another to see who could be
the biggest tool. And they set world records in that regard --
some of the biggest tools anyone has ever seen. But they
didn't start out with malice in their hearts, by in large.
What is so utterly weird about these discussions is the
collective inability to even consider the obvious candidate for
the source of the problem. You are all invoking crazed
bankers and financiers conspiracies now. But just look at
the chain of evidence.
We have at present a huge amount of bad debt. There is no
doubt of this. This debt has also risen dramatically in the
last 10 years. You doubt this, have a look at the table on
which shows how much certain banks debt is as a percentage of
their country's GDP, and ask yourself if you are really
prepared to argue that this is the same now in aggregate as 5-10
years ago. Of course it was not.
Now, lets ask how it got so big. I know, you all think it
was computers, despite the fact that credit bubbles have arisen
without computers, and despite the fact that computing has
accompanied every other feature of society over the last 10-20
years and so can be invoked with the same rationality to explain
everything. You might as well blame any other universal
feature of our environment, like central heating.
No, it got so big because of identifiable government
actions. In the US, for instance, the Clinton
Administration instructed Fannie and Freddie to change the
criteria for mortgage purchase, in pursuit of extending home
ownership to those who had previously been considered bad
risks. In Europe, many regulators accepted as bank reserves
insurance written by AIG, and so permitted expansion of lending
beyond previously known limits. In the UK the government
engaged in deficit spending, and concealed off balance sheet
financing via something called the PFI. The government also
kept trying to urge everyone to find creative ways of extending
the benefits of home ownership to everyone, which ministers
commonly referred to as 'getting on the housing
ladder'. A ladder which only went one way, of
course. Mortgage approvals were relaxed to help with this.
In the US, the rating agencies were consitituted by the
government as a duopoly without competition. The monolines
were encouraged by the rating agencies to insure municipals and
later other bonds by their granting of the higher ratings pension
funds required. The rating agencies were also paid, under
this government sponsored scheme, by the companies they
rated. In the US, under Greenspan, in fear of the wholly
imaginary Year 2000 bug, interest rates were dropped below the
rate of inflation. It wasn't bankers that did this, it
was the Fed, giving the banks the means effectively to pay people
to take out loans at the taxpayer's expense!
All of this is fact, not subject to dispute. Now, you are
going to have to argue that we are in the middle of enormous
amounts of defaulting bad debt, which was incurred with the
support encouragement and cause of these activities, but somehow,
the only thing that went wrong was the wickedness and greed of
bankers, and the fact that they were using computers. It
was, presumably, a complete coincidence that all this government
credit creation was going on at the same time. That had
nothing to do with any of it? This is totally nuts.
If the problem is debt, look for who was behind the creation of
the debt. What did they do differently?
If you want to look for conspiracies, though I find that
completely unecessary when stupidity and political opportunism
and fading memories of previous crashes can explain far better,
then at least look for your conspirators among those who actually
had the opportunity to produce the effect, and for whom there is
a large trail of evidence showing that they did actually do it.
However, all you seem able to see is the wicked bankers, and the
need for more government regulation. Yes, we may need
government regulation. But its not like we have not had
it. We have just had government regulation and initiatives
desiged to produce a credit bubble. What we need is
government regulation designed to produce sound banking and
finance practices. No amount of yelling at computers and
bankers will prevent a government hell bent on creating a credit
bubble. And they'll usually create one this big about
every 70-100 years. We are right on track. The last
one was 1929.
frequency of major market bubble much fast than that, had a few
since 1929 but when markets are intimately coupled then we have
current situation. Such coupling was mostly forbidden until
a decade ago.
bankers and most other megacorporations still wicked in their
machinations, they pushed the politicians in this recent case
into decoupling starting a decade ago. Their scams
continue through the cycles of boom and bust, all variation on
pyramid scheme (not "Ponzi scheme", that's
different)
No, it got so big because of identifiable government
actions. In the US, for instance, the Clinton Administration
instructed Fannie and Freddie to change the criteria for
mortgage purchase, in pursuit of extending home ownership to
those who had previously been considered bad risks.
Gee, that story is going around a lot these days. It doesn't
appear to have a lot to do with the truth but it's going
around...
The
Agonist has been having some go-arounds on the topic:
Fannie and Freddie were effectively shut down by their
regulator, OFHEO, in 2004 because their accounting was flawed
and their hedges didn't work. Until that point, they had
guaranteed and securitized "conforming" mortgages,
which had strict limits on downpayments, size, verification of
applicant income and assets, and restrictions on structure.
This is all a matter of record. Anyone can see this by
looking at the GSE annual reports from 2004 to 2007. Around
2006 the two GSEs were allowed back in the market with somewhat
looser limits, and their management took the fateful step of
investing in subprime mortgages that went well beyond their
conforming mortgage standards for what they guaranteed and
securitized. If was these subprime mortgages, originated by
Wall Street, that killed these two GSE - that and their
perpetual lack of capital.
It is also easy to see that in 2004 a cottage industry
sprung up orchestrated by Wall Street investment banks, who
teemed up with mortgage brokers around the country to begin
originating subprime mortgages, plus jumbos and other mortgages
that had strange new features like option ARMs, pick-and-pay
loans, and NINJAs, many of which required zero downpayment (the
borrower could borrow the down payment from a second party).
This is where 84% of the mortgages since 2004 came from. If you
look at the securities that are in trouble now, with nearly 50%
defaulting mortgages, they have features like these. Frannie
and Freddie mortgages dated before 2004 are not having serious
delinquency issues.
Since this is all a matter of fact and record, we have to
conclude that Ben Stein, Limbaugh, McCain, Hannity, the WSJ,
and the Republican noise machine are knowingly presenting a
false picture of reality. [....]
As for conspiracies, perhaps a simpler one to see and understand
is the GOP
starve the beast strategy. Not having a political viable
means to disable entitlement programs directly, the GOP elites
have embarked on a strategy of deliberately engineering their
financial collapse. Similar GOP work here in California has
saddled us with the highest per capita public debt of any state
and periodic crises where the state teeters on default, withholds
pay, etc.
The things you should notice about starve the beast strategies
are who gets the tax cuts and what the end-game is. The
wealthiest typically get the tax cuts. The end-game is not a
realignment of legislative priorities but a crash. They are
aiming for governments in default, abruptly denuded of staff, and
incapable of anything but military action.
In other words, arranging large institutional crashes isn't
just an accident of these groups: it's an aim.
Looking at the financial sector, we are now starting to see
massive consolidation and the installation of new executives in
some cases with liquidity injections into the banks on the
taxpayer dime. Conditions leading to this were created by
(primarily republican) de-regulation and have now yielded the
inevitable crash, destroying a lot of personal savings, and
making Paulson roughly the new Czar of the finance industry. You
attribute that to stupidity and political opportunism? It looks
like a sought after policy goal!
None of it would have been possible had not a lot the operators
of these schemes now unwinding believed they were doing
something else. That is, had not many of the people on the
front lines of the financial system and reporting on it
fundamentally misunderstood new and very large classes of
"innovative instruments". So, yes, of course the
software side has a lot of 'splainin to do about just why
exactly we ought not see this as a complete abandonment of the
social responsibility component of engineering.
in fear of the wholly imaginary Year 2000 bug
Few people seriously argue that the bug was wholly imaginary.
Many who did the work point to specific problems they encountered
and/or fixed. A great deal of infrastructure was replaced and/or
significantly improved in ways that have had secondary benefits
since that time.
It is true that expectations of "the end of the world"
were exaggerated and probably caused a tiny bubble in
"survivalist gear" however pumping liquidity into the
banks as 2000 approached didn't create any significant
problems that are convincingly demonstrated anyplace I've
seen.
Rather, the dot com bubble was most directly precipitated by bad
information, failures of diligence, and shady IPO practices.
The things you should notice about starve the beast
strategies are who gets the tax cuts and what the end-game is.
The wealthiest typically get the tax cuts. The end-game is not a
realignment of legislative priorities but a crash. They are
aiming for governments in default, abruptly denuded of staff, and
incapable of anything but military action.
That may be their stated policy but to claim the GOP is a
minarchist organization is just plain wrong.
Looking at their overall actions it is quite clear that they are
just as much the party of Big Central Government as the Dems,
they just have different priorties on who gets to suck on the
taxpayer's teet.
Corporatist-socialism as opposed to the Dem's
socialist-corporatism is the only real difference between the two
if you discount all the emotional wedge issues that get played up
around election time to 'mobilize the base'.
Looking at their overall actions it is quite clear that they
are just as much the party of Big Central Government as the
Dems, they just have different priorties on who gets to suck on
the taxpayer's teet.
Right. That's why I described them as protecting the military
function and attacking entitlements. Of course, now we can also
say they'd like to vest more power, money, and complexity in
the Treasury.
Even in the military space I do have to wonder about their
end-game here. We learned a whole lot over the past 5 years or so
about the sudden USian boom in paramilitary industry.
That privatization of a lot of military functions is alarming in
its implications for continuity of government scenarios. Where,
ultimately, do the loyalties of those organizations lie?
Corporatist-socialism as opposed to the Dem's
socialist-corporatism is the only real difference between the
two if you discount all the emotional wedge issues that get
played up around election time to 'mobilize the
base'.
Heh. That's a funny way to put it.
Perhaps it's just something about my "life
experience" or what have you. There are really four parties,
maybe 5 or 6 that matter. Two of these would be core D and R
registered voters -- folks on your average street. There is some
"dominionist" kookiness in the R part of that but
I'm skeptical it runs all that deep. Then there the other
two: D and R power insiders. You can split up the insiders and
get 5 or 6 groups. On the D side you might want to split between
the children of Kennedy and Tip O'Neil, etc. and the more
Dean-ish / Obama-ish upstarts. I don't know that that
particular split matters much but that's how I would get to
6. But the split on the inside of the R side I think is much more
important and it is not, as so commonly described, a split
between fiscal and social conservatives (that's more in the
base). Rather, the R insiders are split between the ideological
loyalist conservatives and the non-loyal fascist conspirators.
The latter group seems to hold most of the cards, to be firm
enmeshed in the intel community, and to have no particular
loyalty to the Union except insofar as they find it convenient at
various times. The fascists plotted to overthrow the government
and lent support to Hitler (hi, Prescott Bush). They exploit IC
ties to obtain and hold executive power over long periods of time
(e.g., Cheney, Rumsfeld, etc.). They have zero respect for human
rights, no qualms about taking political prisoners or engaging in
torture, little concern for the fate of the "average
American," inflated senses of personal entitlement, etc.
They appear out to destroy the union and then consolidate their
power in the aftermath.
Thomas, do you think that Fannie and Freddie and the Fed are
somehow not part of the government? That what we are now
seeing is a start of government regulation to save us from some
non-governmental agencies? Do you think that when Fannie
and Freddie changed tack it was anything other than the
government changing tack?
The Fed is the government. So are Fannie and Freddie.
Whatever they did was government policy. They cannot save
us from the government, all this is, is the government
changing tack again.
The same thing has happened in the UK. All that has
happened is that the FSA has changed tack and raised capital
requirements. The banks then have to raise money, some of
which comes from equity participation by taxpayers.
However, what do you think the FSA policies were during the
bubble? Did they maybe have anything to do with the
bubble? Of course they did, they caused it by their
policies. Now they are reversing it.
This is not the government stepping in to rescuue is. This
is the government having wrecked the economy with one set of
policies, turning on a dime and implementing a different
set. And looking around while doing it, saying 'Who,
Me?'. This is basically credit cycles produced by the
government. I don't think its any sort of
conspiracy. But it is extreme stupidity and wishful
thinking.
Do you think that when Fannie and Freddie changed tack it
was anything other than the government changing tack?
You reported a rumor going around right wing news sources and GOP
political discourse. The rumor says "Clinton made it easier
for poor people to get mortgages with changes to Fannie and
Freddie and that's why we have the sub-prime crisis."
That rumor is false, not born out by the facts. The mortgages
written under the changes from the Clinton administration
aren't doing too badly.
This is basically credit cycles produced by the
government.
You keep saying that and your evidence is basically the
arguments-by-analogy of the Austrian school plus a few numbers
that show that during bubbles, indeed, credit inflates and this
is indeed often reflected in government regulatory or fiscal
policy.
That doesn't establish cause and effect, however. Nobody held
a gun to Wall Street's head, for example, and ordered
over-investment in (and consequent over-leveraging of) CDOs and
off-market CDSs. No conceivable regulation could ultimately have
prevented trade in such instruments, only caused it to be better
hidden. For a long time, the poorly understood nature of those
instruments (plus adjustments in how inflation and unemployment
were measured) gave the government plausible evidence of real
economic growth and low inflation thus justifying the monetary
and regulatory policies they adopted. The story only started to
fall apart within the past few years with a rising chorus of
criticism and concern.
Common sense should have told people that something was wrong
much sooner. For a period of time one could scarcely escape
hour-long TV "infomercials" variously for auctions of
really sketchy, undeveloped land; seminars in how to be a
zero-down real-estate flipper; and "get in early" deals
on units in middle-of-nowhere "planned communities".
The net trolling for unqualified borrowers was broad, deep, and
visibly burning through lots of marketing money with a curiously
high amount of on-the-margin profit taking from things like
seminar givers. Nevertheless, in both the public and private
parts of the finance sector, many people critical to the key
decisions driving the sale of the resulting securities were
content to puzzle over balance sheets and official macro-economic
stats and conclude "No, everything is mostly fine."
So yes, there was "wishful thinking" in that sense but
that wishful thinking was brought to you by mis-labeled software
products.
"You keep saying that and your evidence is basically the
arguments-by-analogy of the Austrian school plus a few numbers
that show that during bubbles, indeed, credit inflates and this
is indeed often reflected in government regulatory or fiscal
policy."
No, argument by analogy it ain't. You have not read
Rothbard's history of the depression. Were you to do
that, you'd find a precisely quantified account of exactly
how much the events surrounding the creation of the Fed added to
bank reserves, where, and why. This is not argument by
analogy. This is argument by pointing to the facts.
As for Fannie and Freddie, were you to go back and read the
NYTimes for 1999 or so, you'd find an account of the changes
in policy, along with some reservations about them back
then. Those policy changes happened, and were known at the
time to be happening, its not either analogy or retrospect.
I do not think you can simply show that during bubbles
'credit inflates'. You have to ask one more
thing: where did it come from. This is
trackable. In all cases it turns out to be
government. For instance, do some research, find out where
all the money came from in the South Sea Bubble.
Concretely, where did it come from?
Yes, you are right about the infomercials. This is what
happens when there is a huge supply of some product (credit) and
people are being paid vast amounts to sell it. But what
you're always refusing to even ask is: where did all
this credit come from? Or do you think (a) it was there all
along - no, it wasn't. Or perhaps (b) it was created by
Wall St completely independently of Fannie and Freddie and the
Fed?
This last is nuts. Do you really think that the Fed
lowering interest rate to 1% nominal had nothing to
do with the credit bubble of the last ten years???
"Freddie Mac’s portfolio of issued mortgage
securities grew by 10.5 percent and our retained portfolio grew
by 8.7 percent."
"Turning to our balance sheet, Freddie Mac’s
regulatory core capital grew to over $35 billion — well
above the capital requirements set by our safety and soundness
regulator.
As a result of our strong capital position and confidence in
our profitability, we increased our quarterly common stock
dividend twice last year. In fact, since December 2003, we have
raised this dividend by 81 percent."
"In May we reported 2005 earnings in excess of $2
billion in GAAP net income."
"In 2005, Freddie Mac financed homes for more than 4
million borrowers. Our affordable performance was among our
strongest on record — with more than 54 percent of the
units financed through our mortgage purchases being affordable to
low- and moderate-income families."
Shut down in 2004? Not allowed back until 2006? Granted much of
this report is corporate propaganda, and I am aware that there
was some to-do about accounting in 2004, but.... gee....Those are
some pretty hefty numbers for 'shut down'.
The 10.5 percent growth in securities issued in 2005 is up from a
dismal 3.7M mortgages in 2004 (read the overview of the 2004
report, not just the 2005 report).
The regulatory core capital growth reports on a rebuilding to
achieve the regulatory requirements started in 2004.
Look at the 2004
report with the summary containing bits about putting their
house back in order, rebuilding shareholder confidence, etc.
Note, btw, that the HUD goals for affordable housing which the
2005 report says were met are percentage of business
goals, not absolute numbers.
Yeah, shut down in 2004 and not fully back until 2006. Sounds
about right.
Most people reconize that there is a problem but don't accept
the cause because it directly contradicts the propaganda they
were taught to believe during their public education
indoctrination.
The fact that the people who have the most to lose if the system
were changed are also the very same people who determine what
'truths' are taught doesn't seem to register as a
conflict of interest for some reason.
The government monopoly on education isn't some altrustic
plan to ensure that every poor kid's 'right' to an
education isn't violated by the evil capitalists but a means
to ensure only a pro-State message is taught. I think it would be
very, very hard to find a single instance where the neo-Keynesian
doctrine of 'government deficit spending is the only way to
solve a recession' and 'taxation to reduce spending is
the only way to cure [price] inflation' isn't touted as
the 'proper' way to manage a complex industrial economy
and cure the 'natural' cycles that are an inherent part
of capitalism.
It is also little wonder that the people who directly gain from
such a system, government bureaucrats (who quite rationally try
to increase both their income and budgets), are full supporters
while trying their best (by proxy through their court economists)
to disprove any competing theories which may show that they are
the root of the problem their policies are attempting to solve.
It is quite refreshing to see Mises and Hayek getting some
mainstream media time recently...It'll be a cold day in hell
before they give a nod to Rothbard and his 'radical
anarchism' I'm afraid, though.
The masters of the universe, coders one and all.
No, not the action figures, but the financial big wheels.
There seems to be a general consensus of opinion out there that these guys and their underlings "the bankers" and "the city" basically fumbled the play, dropped the ball, spilt the milk, whatever euphemism you want to use.
There used to be a saying in prison, "If you're so smart, what are you doing in here?"
The flipside of this is, as reassuring as it may be for everyone who just watched their pensions go up in smoke to congregate and agree that these guys made a monumental mistake, this simply is not a logical perspective.
These MOTU didn't get where they were by being assholes, well, not the stupid kind at least, and it completely violtates all logic to claim that several thousand very intelligent people, worldwide, have spent the past decade building this edifice of re-packaged debt-as-an-asset rinse-and-repeat until every single "asset" is its own father, uncle and grandson, and nobody knows where to send the paternity suit to.
This is like claiming that a bunch of coders sat down to write winamp, and everything was going really well, and then wow, one day they woke up to find that they had unleashed Smitfraud on the world.
Or like claiming that a bunch of guys sat down to write the US Constitution, and ended up writing the Jolly roger cookbook.
There is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY that we can have gotten to where we are with the CDO's, CDS's, and everything esle, unless all these people know exactly what they were doing, and achieved everything they set out to do.
Now it may well be the case that they can claim to be Oppenheimer, and intone "now we are destroyers of worlds" when all they were doing was interesting science, eg Oppy didn't pursue the career path he did because his sole long term goal was to vapourise tens of thousands of Japanese civilians.
However, you cannot on the one hand claim that Oppenheimer was a genius, and then also claim that at no point did it ever occur to him that his work would first be put to military use.
Gee, I'd like to pursue a career in developing man portable multi-kilowatt lasers, oh cool, uncle sam is funding my research, they did WHAT? They fired my laser at PEOPLE! Oh my GOD, how could I possibly have foreseen this.
hmmm
I wonder why we try to teach our kids not become thieves or habitual drug users, maybe because we have this idea that the choices we make today influence the outcome of our lives, our future options, our future (available) choices.
Which is great, unless we are talking about a GREAT thinker, or a GREAT engineer, or a GREAT scientist, or a GREAT politician, or a GREAT financier.
As soon as that happens, all of a sudden it is a whole different ball-game, Ozzy Osborne's kids take drugs, wow, I mean, who could possibly have seen that coming?
And in this week's episode of the Osborne's, we see Sharon stage managing the DEA bust and selecting a new outfit for the court hearing where the dogs and Jack are removed from the home and placed in the care of Social Services.
No.
The current financial crisis is an edifice as complex and as carefully crafted as the Windows 7 code base, it is simply too artificial to be anything but the works of man, the works on man working to a common goal.
Similarly, all the political posturing, from Gordon "moron" Brown to Geogre "draft dodger" Bush all claiming that they are leading their country, and their country is leading the world, in dealing with the current financial crisis, is equally an artifice, a work of man.
Now the IMF is in on the game too, warning that, and I quote "the world is facing financial meltdown"
Which is all very fortunate really, because the terrorist threat thing was starting to wear a bit thin and fraying around the edges and the middle and everywhere else.
But luckily we all now have a global financial crisis to worry about, and of course the biggest problem by far is "fixing" it without drawing attention to the fact that it is totally, completely and utterly impossible for this financial crisis to have arisen any way other than by the deliberate hand on man.
Let's take a look at the Bush dynasty, in the past century this family has been advisor to President Hoover, US Senator, married into the Walker banking family, chairman of US - China chamber of commerce, US president, congressman and CIA director, US President, governor of texas, governor of florida, numerous first and second ladys, often the same person, numerous bankers, the list goes on and on. Oh yeah, distant cousins to Washington, Roosevelt and Coolidge too.
But, like the current financial crisis, this all happened accidentally, stands to reason, because statistically in a democratic country of 300 millions what are the chances otherwise???
This shit makes the Greek / Danish / Austrian / Russian / English royal families interbreeding look positively random and mongrel-ish.
But hey, it is all just circumstance, and anyone who says anything different is clearly a paranoid schizo with a tinfoil hat innit.
The PROBLEM here, we are told by these dynastic MOTU, is all these dead-beat hispanic types taking out 125% mortgages on McMansions.
Of course it is, history is replete with examples of ill-educated peons sitting down at the table with bankers and then walking away and the bankers go to count their fingers on to find both arms and legs are missing.
Sure, ole Pedro spent all day working construction to buy a Dodge Ram, but he spent all night in a spiderman suit hacking the banks computer systems and creating 125% interest only mortgage instruments that nobody in the staff or boardroom questioned.
Just like Jimmy the heroin addict, he also has a spiderman suit, but he hacks the White House and the Pentagon and starts a war in Afghanistan in order to ensure his supply of smack.
It was obviously another spider-suit hacker responsible for my new bank account that I created two weeks ago on nothing more than a photocard driving licence for ID, being awarded an automagic 1,500 UK pound overdraft facility, that the bank clerk could not disable on the computer, even when I specifically asked him to.
What?
Elite ninja spider suit robed hacker by night, semi-literate sewerage plant worker by day, agent provocateurs too fanciful for you?
You think maybe tens of thousands of degree qualified professionals from all over the world and all cultures somehow accidentally creating these financial djinns is a more credible idea? seriously? Because I promise I won't come in your mouth.
Or maybe we can emply occam's razor.
Everyone knew EXACTLY what they were doing, and they still do. In fact, the mere success of their efforts is testimony to the fact that far from being incompetent and unfit to be in charge of a piggy bank, these people are actually extremely bloody good at what they do... literally world class.
Merely competent people would have fucked it up totally the first time they tried to repackage Pedro's 125% interest only mortage for half a million as an asset and sell it back to Pedro as his pension plan.