Credit where credit is due.

Sat Oct 04 04:46:00 -0700 2008
manage

A few years ago, the Christmas turkey had been in the oven for an hour or so when "pop" and the oven died.

To me, who grew up differently, it wasn't such a big deal, take the turkey dish out of the oven, put it on a hotplate on low, and cover the whole thing, three hours later it was cooked, beautifully.

"Her indoors" refused to eat it, having declared 3 hours previously when the oven died that Christmas dinner was "ruined", because as far as she was concerned once the oven died there was no other way to cook it.

I hear the same sort of attitude now, but this time about credit, without credit you can neither live, nor run a business, but it is just like the turkey story, if X is the only way you know of doing something, you simply give up when X no longer works.

That's kind of what we have now with the credit crisis, for the past 25 years at least credit has been universally available, so the chances are that the person reading this has never known a life without "easy" credit, so cannot imagine how it can be lived.

Businesses, we are told, depend on lines of credit, to pay wages, to bridge the gap between order and delivery, to invest in production equipment.

No credit = no business, no employment, and total economic meltdown, the turkey is raw and inedible.

But the fact is, this just is not so. No business needs credit, but a full generation has grown up knowing no other way.

In fact, the generation of businesses and employees who have grown up with easy credit are completely blind to the fact that not only is there another way, but their way of involving easy credit in everything is a sure sign of lack of skill, experience, and acumen.

To cook a turkey you apply heat, and heat is work, provided your heat source is sufficient to overcome losses and energetic enough to provide an adequate cooking temperature, it does not matter what your heat source is or how big it is. A few candles wouldn't have done the job, nor would an oil lamp, but a pressurised oil lamp would have... when I grew up a "cooker" was a an oil tank full of paraffin with two circular wicks, and the "oven" was a tinplate box that sat on top of the two wicks.

So doing a job, whether it be cooking a turkey or making widgets, is done by applying work, not by applying credit. Sure, credit will buy you a microwave, but now you're slicing pieces off all future work to pay for the credit.

The newspapers here are now talking about all the poor students, finishing their courses this year to find that corporate graduate employment programmes have gone "pop" like our oven did at Christmas past, and there these poor students are, saddled with "student debt" of around UK£ 30,000 each.

Well I'm sorry, but anyone who can come out of 3 years of tertiary education, with a degree purporting that they are more intelligent than the norm, saddled with massive debts like these is demonstrating in the clearest way possible that they are stupid and unthinking, with a vastly over inflated opinion of their own abilities and worth.

In about 1 more year's time the girl will get her degree, BSc in Business Management, with an additional minor qualification in Accountancy.

Arguably, economic conditions at that time will probably be even worse than they are now, with all the current university students finishing their degrees and saddled with debt.

However, she will be awarded her degree and she will owe precisely zero debt.

K came into my life at 14, a confused and resentful (granted, with some reason) child, and thanks to the support of the school system and english society managed to stay that way until she left school.

When K left school at 16 it was a bit of a quandary to determine what, if anything, she had learned in 11 years or primary and secondary schooling, long division was out there somewhere with the Higgs Boson and FTL spaceships, vocab was limited to a few thousand words, all from pop songs or television soaps.

She had had a paper round for a couple of years, but now school was over and she had basically graduated without any of the worthless qualifications that schools bestow on their product, perhaps the main thing that school had bestowed upon her was the belief that, Pink Floyd style, she didn't need no education, and anyway, she wasn't clever, so one of the few accessible jobs was cleaning rooms at a local motel.

I can distinctly remember saying to her when she got her first month's pay packet, "so you work X hours a week, you worked for four weeks, does your wage meet or exceed the Legal National Minimum Wage?"

After having patiently explained what the minimum wage was, and its amount, she attempted (reluctant doesn't come into it, I literally had to force her) with pen and paper and electronic calculator, to calculate whether or not she was being paid a wage that met the legal minimum.

30 minutes later she still did not have the answer. It was utterly clear to me that in 30 years she would not have solved this problem, as the only thing she knew for sure was that she was too thick to solve such a difficult problem, so she just fiddled and sulked, knowing from experience that eventually the problem would go away, given enough time something would come along, maybe the bell for the end of class.

Something had to be done, and I was there on the spot, and at 16 she was now a young adult, not just a girl child.

I'll admit, I was tough on the kid, making a point of telling her that real life and the real world out there was orders of magnitude tougher, because real life and the real world literally didn't give a shit about her.

For her 18th birthday present I took her to a bookshop and bought here a proper (not concise) Dictionary, and from that point on in conversation any time I used a word she didn't understand I told her to look it up, read the definition, look up any words in the definition she didn't understand, and then tell me (with dictionary closed) what the word meant.

By the time she was 19 I had pushed her into applying, on spec, for a job as a receptionist at a local 4 star hotel. I say "pushed" because despite the fact that she was learning and improving herself and had grown as far as she could at the Motel, where she was now Receptionist, she still thought she wasn't good enough.

By the time she was 20 she was working in a 4 star hotel and enjoying it, but realising that her lack of education let her down, so I told her to do something about it, and we enrolled her into the Open University.

She pays for the OU courses herself out of her wages, (not inconsiderable sums, the accountancy section alone is 2,000 UK Pounds) and studies while holding down a full time job.

Today as I type this she is about a year from completing her BSc degree course, she is Reception Manager, she has never owed or borrowed money, no credit cards, loans, hire purchase or overdrafts. She is 23 years old and she herself finds it difficult to look back six or seven short years, she finds it unsettling to look at what she was, and what the future held for her.

Yes, I pushed her, yes, I coached her, yes I encouraged and supported and advised her, but, the fact is she is the one who went to work every day for those seven years, she is the one who came home and studied the dictionary and started reading, she is the one who studies her degree course and passes each stage with flying colours.

However, quite apart from the success she has made of her career and education to date, the actual process itself has of necessity taken a confused and resentful child with negligible self esteem and self worth and turned her into a thoroughly pleasant young woman.

For years while her school contemporaries drank deeply of the "entitled" society and adorned themselves with the trappings of the easy credit society, she put actual work into the job, and now she has all the trappings she wants, but she owns them outright and worked (hard) for every last thing, plus, she has something far more valuable, she has that untapped, unsullied and uncompromised potential for the future.

She is not indentured, she owes nobody, she owes nothing (she says she owes me a debt that can never be repaid, I tell her this is another lesson that takes years to learn, "pass it on") and she is beholden to no-one. She has never allowed herself to become compromised.

I'm reminded of the old Oscar Widle joke.

Wilde "Madam, would you sleep with me for a thousand guineas?"
(a guinea was one pound and one shilling, 105 pence in new money)

Woman "Why, of course Mr Wilde!"

an hour passes

Wilde "Madam, would you sleep with me for a single guinea?"

Woman "Why, Mr Wilde, what do you take me for! A prostitute?"

Wilde "Madam, we have already settled that, now we are arguing about the price."

Which pretty neatly sums up this new generation that know no other way than easy credit.

They literally cannot conceive of any other way of living, either as individuals or as businessmen, and so in sure and certain knowledge that the world is flat, than man will suffocate at speeds above that which a galloping horse can achieve, that man will never fly, that the earth is at the centre of the crystal spheres, the only responses they can contemplate are the responses of the born and bred prostitute or indentured servant.

In a world where all drug companies make prozac, all doctors prescribe it and all patients take it you will not find any solutions to the drug problem by consulting the pharmaceutical companies, the doctors or the patients.

In a world where all financial institutions, businesses and consumers live on easy credit you will not find any solutions to the problems by consulting banks, managers or consumers.

Worse still, those who have the answers, like the girl, will not be listened to, because, much like her looking back at what she was when she left school at 16, the diagnosis makes for extremely uncomfortable reading, it is much easier to take another of mother's little helpers and live another day on easy credit and wait until the bell rings for the end of class and the problem goes away, as it always has in the past, at least, within the timeframe of their experience.

The girl is proof that even today, it takes nothing more than a willingness to work exclusively for yourself and not for the usury of credit for six or seven years to transform utterly your life and to transform permanently your future.

K isn't especially gifted, she isn't especially smart, she is quite ordinary in every way, she didn't have any special opportunities, and she didn't travel a road free of pitfalls, nor was she perfect in her attempts.

She made mistakes, she missed opportunities, she made a full complement of cock-ups, some major, but she persevered, and that, more than anything else, is the reason that she is where she is today, and faces a future as full of promise as she does.

If she can do it, anyone can.

Looking ahead time can seem to be a very long road indeed, but that same period of time in a rear view mirror is just the blink of an eye.

It has taken us 30+ years to completely dismantle a culture and society where we worked, and to replace it with a live now, pay later, society, and now the waiter has come with the bill and everyone is dashing for the toilet, hoping someone else will be left with the bill, hoping the bell for the end of class will ring.

We can turn around, we can go back to giving credit only where it is due, and in six or seven years time we can look back and say, truthfully "that wasn't actually that bad, and just look at me now and the future I have!"

But we won't, even in extremis, not unless someone in authority, both moral and actual, makes a stand, and as I look around me I see no hope whatsoever of any of our "leaders" filling those shoes.

That is work for individuals.

Given that we have a technological and technocratic society, that is work for technological and technocratic individuals.

This is work for the plethora of small, one, two and three man band commercial software houses and widget makers, this is work for the Open Source community.

Just imagine, if you will, the commenting readership of Technocrat.

Imagine such a group of individuals that happen to live in one place, imagine that they give what time they have, anything from one to five days a week, working as a team, going out into the small, independent, business community, giving freely of time and expertise.

Imagine what that region would look like six or seven years later when all that perseverance starts paying off in spades. When all those small, independent businesses are debt free and any work they do is not sliced off for future usury payments.

The local 2 man plastic retailer who was helped to build his own IT system and CNC machinery for a few thousand dollars, instead of having to borrow 20k from the bank for an IT system and 200k for a CNC machine, with a 3 year depreciation you just saved that small independent company what amounts to a tax of over seventy thousand dollars a year.

Suddenly their products are cheaper, signmakers and other can afford to buy the product, and the parasitic taxes of usury and live now pay later are replaced with the productivity of reinvested, self interested, selfish work.

One of the old Directors of Rolls Royce said, and I paraphrase, "There are three ways to create wealth, you can dig it up, you can grow it, or you can work for it, anything else is just shifting bits of paper around."

Credit where credit is due.
Sat Oct 04 05:57:45 -0700 2008
manage

...what happens when almost nobody even knows what a hotplate is, much less has one?

Credit where credit is due.
Sat Oct 04 06:36:48 -0700 2008
manage

Create a market.  Show them what hotplates are, how to use them and sell them at a good markup from cheap China suppliers.

If possible, start a second business making hotplates locally.  Also a cooking school.

Credit where credit is due.
Sat Oct 04 09:00:33 -0700 2008
manage

I'm coming close to this with respect to how the credit crunch might affect ordinary people- but I can't imagine that somebody richer than me hasn't already started a hotplate factory.

Credit where credit is due.
Sat Oct 04 09:23:14 -0700 2008
manage

that word in the U.S. now just means small electric oven.

In U.S. you might want to look at a type of "dutch oven" called a camping or chuckwagon or cowboy dutch oven, can put fire below but also hot coals on lid (optional for outdoors for more even heat, not indoors please!).  I've friend who baked bread in those things.  Dutch ovens can do roasting, baking, frying.

Credit where credit is due.
Mon Oct 06 07:21:30 -0700 2008
manage

Missed the point.  In my case, a hotplate factory would be a 100% reserve paycheck-and-automated-bill-payment bank.

Credit where credit is due.
Sat Oct 04 09:45:19 -0700 2008
manage

Ah, you just missed the point a little with the "hotplate factory" (emphasis mine) comment.

A "hotplate factory" is just some suitable raw materials, some suitable tools, and some suitable skills.

Tomorrow, the "hotplate factory" can use those same source ingredients and make greenhouse frost preventers.

The next day it can make chick incubators.

The "factory" is not in fact a factory, it is a worker, or group of workers, or group of workers with robotic tools. Robot = worker.

This is the bit all the "easy credit" types trip over on, with Karl Marx and the communist manifesto, specifically "..the workers control the means of production.." if you do not control the means of production, you are not a worker, but a member of the proletariat, with no choice but to sell your labour to the bourgeoise, who control the means of production.

A "factory" is a place where you take the suitable raw materials, and substitute suitable tools and suitable skills with a machine, a hot plate making machine.

Now you can take a general 3 axis CNC robot worker, and turn it into an electronic proletariat, by making it so that it is an A4 inkjet printer.

Then you can take another one and make it an A4 scanner.

Then you can take another one and make it an A3 inkjet.

The "general purpose PC" was a worker, increasingly, what with DRM and proprietary software etc, we are busily trying to turn it into a proletariat machine.

If you buy a blue ray PS3 you literally do not control the means of production, it can only do one thing, and it can only do it with one kind of raw materials (software) and it will not do word processing.

--------------------------------------

so, to reiterate......

but I can't imagine that somebody richer than me hasn't already started a hotplate factory.

so what if they have?

Bit like Bruce saying back in 95 "I can't imagine someone richer than me hasn't written a boot loader" looks at MS Chicago installer...

What if I don't actually want a 1200 watt sandwich toaster for sliced white bread?

What if I want a 500 watt 24 VDC one that does french sticks?

It doesn't matter how much money the sandwich toaster factory builder has invested, he will NEVER make what I want, but you President, you could, because it makes little difference to you what shape or power or voltage or colour I want it in.

You next argument will be equally facetious "but the sandwich toaster factory sells sandwich toasters for 30 bucks"

Not true, they sell a very specific design of sandwich toaster for 30 bucks, the one I want, they won't even sell me for a thousand bucks.

Even the 30 bucks one, there is no way you, personally, could make a sandwich toaster so cheap and nasty and disposable, so naturally yours will cost a bit more.

Plus, with you personally, I can pay you 25 bucks a week for 4 weeks, in advance, the factory, or their reseller, will only let me enter into a credit agreement with usury and paint myself my own bullseye for all their direct marketing crap.

=======================

This is a time of opportunity.

Credit where credit is due.
Sat Oct 04 13:58:52 -0700 2008
manage

This is the bit all the "easy credit" types trip over on, with Karl Marx and the communist manifesto, specifically "..the workers control the means of production.." if you do not control the means of production, you are not a worker, but a member of the proletariat, with no choice but to sell your labour to the bourgeoise, who control the means of production.

You were doing so well, I couldn't find any major faults in the article proper...

There are two classes of productive people, workers and entrepreneurs.

Workers sell their labor for money today while an entrepreneur risks their capital (means of production) in the hopes of getting paid tomorrow.

If the workers were to own the means of production in the traditional sense they wouldn't be 'wage earners' but would share in the profits and losses with no guarantee that they would ever get paid. They would risk their 'capital investment' (labor) and wouldn't see any pay until the final consumer good were sold.

Now a 'wage earner' settles on a lower price today for their share of the final selling price rather than waiting for the final product to be sold and get paid then. They also don't assume any of the risk in this deal since their pay for the work done is disconnected from the final sale, they get paid no matter what while the entrepreneur only gets paid (profits) if all their calculations work out and there is a good market for the product in the distant, uncertain future.

The much demonized middlemen also serve a function similar to this as they let someone who makes an O-ring get paid as soon as they finish, or very soon after, rather than having to wait a couple years into the future when the final product that contains the O-ring is sold as a consumer good and reap their share of the profits.

The third type is the political class who produces nothing but merely lives off the other two classes in a parasitical manner.

Credit where credit is due.
Sat Oct 04 14:39:04 -0700 2008
manage

There are two classes of productive people, workers and entrepreneurs.

Nope, those two classes are proles and workers.

Workers sell their labor for money today

This is literally the textbookdefinition of a prole, not a worker.

while an entrepreneur

worker

risks their capital (means of production) in the hopes of getting paid tomorrow.

nope, if you don't sell the item today, you still own it and the stake of your labour tomorrow.

Now a 'wage earner' settles on a lower price today for their share of the final selling price rather than waiting for the final product to be sold and get paid then. They also don't assume any of the risk in this deal

That's right, all those risk free wage earners, all 51,000 manufacturing wage earners who were risk free in september and didn't lose their jobs... err... just a mo...

Credit where credit is due.
Mon Oct 06 07:24:44 -0700 2008
manage

You missed it too.  I can't believe nobody's seeing the opportunity here to create a bank that gives the majority of the people what they want:  electronic managment of their cash flow with NO risk.

business students

Sat Oct 04 09:08:11 -0700 2008
manage

none of my younger friends or family who studied business management or accounting in college were told how to start and grow their own business from the ground up.  none were ever taught any other system than money via debt backed by nothing but debt. This is a good thing for central bankers and mega-corporations, no chance of the order getting threatened.

We even have very smart people here who think the police are to protect them and only the police can protect them; there is no need to have the means to protect oneself.

In a psychology class we talked about "functional fixedness", a tendency of the brain to think screwdrivers are only for turning screws and only a screwdriver can turn a screw.  Strangely, a brain can be taught to have less of that just by showing some "outside the box" examples, even methods for  a group of brains working as a team to go beyond conventional solution approach.

This is a really good time to start exploring alternatives to personal finance, business, economy.

business students
Sat Oct 04 09:44:36 -0700 2008
manage

I was reading an article the other day where they were talking about online-dating sites as a model to match creditees with creditors with an eye on doing away with the banking cartel and their steady supply of artificially cheap credit.

You will always have people who want to loan money and people who want to borrow it but what has happened in the last ~40 years is the inflationary monetary model has undercut this market to make it not economically viable to procure credit at 'market' rates anymore. Those with direct access to new money will always be able to undercut Joe Sixpack and their saved dollars because the people who get the money essentially for free have a lower hurdle to overcome for the loan to become profitable.

I'm sure they will have to develop it out a lot more than those micro-loan sites, I wouldn't loan someone i don't know money without some ironclad collateral guarantee behind it, but in theory it is quite doable from a technological standpoint.

It is kind of funny when you think about it that banks are the only 17th century invention that computers haven't fundamentally changed but computers have merely allowed them to get themselves in progressively larger trouble over the years. Their business model really isn't that different from 1609 and the founding of the Bank of Amsterdam.

business students
Sat Oct 04 09:50:13 -0700 2008
manage

You can work it though....

You deposit 100 bucks for loaning out.

I come along and want to borrow 100 bucks, the system does not give me your 100 bucks, it gives me 1 buck from 100 depositors.

at a 10% fee your maximum exposure to me is 1 buck, and your maximum return is your 1 buck back and 10 cents.

business students
Sat Oct 04 09:57:09 -0700 2008
manage

a lot of the things we think as complex modern finance were done in 1600s, stock exchanges and futures and derivatives besides the banking.  That Amsterdamsche Wisselbank made a clever set of rules, they couldn't lose.  Of course we need big banks for our big world, but the problem comes when the bank is outside the control of the people, it can work and bet against them, and can benefit by setting up situations to the hurt of the people and economy.

business students
Mon Oct 06 09:37:49 -0700 2008
manage

But oddly enough, that business model did allow them to kill the only other competing business model- the thrift club.

thanks

Sat Oct 04 10:24:57 -0700 2008
manage

Imagine such a group of individuals that happen to live in one place, imagine that they give what time they have, anything from one to five days a week, working as a team, going out into the small, independent, business community, giving freely of time and expertise.

I think that's a good idea.

From my perspective it's basically a marketing plan for a professional society of engineers. It's a particularly good plan if done well: e.g., the role of giving time and expertise is not to steer customers into buying services or good from the group. Rather, the role of giving away time and advice is to open relationships with prospective customers, building trust (for which purpose solving their problems without taking any money rarely hurts!), and having a two-way exchange of knowledge. Sure, the hackers pass along some of their knowledge for free but in return they get back a lot of information about the detailed form and function of the regional economy. When opportunity for actual trade with the hackers / engineers arises then, both sides (buyer and seller) will just know it on its face: the sale is already made. Meanwhile, the engineers / hackers have all of this information to use deciding what skills / capacities / etc. to hone.

-t

Just-in-time supply chains

Mon Oct 06 09:26:36 -0700 2008
manage

This is not entirely relevant, but it sprang to mind when reading this that the way businesses operate with easy short-term credit is in some ways similar to how just-in-time suply chains work. What you need when you need it, no extra, little margin for error. Very efficient when everything works, but maybe not very fault-tolerant.

It'll be really interesting to see if businesses that rely on JIT supplies will weather this storm differently from businesses with more traditional methods.

Just-in-time supply chains
Mon Oct 06 15:28:03 -0700 2008
manage

Not terribly on-topic, but the south eastern U.S. is just now recovering from a failure in it's just in time gasoline supplies from Houston due to Ike.

 

JIT is another way of saying slightly cheaper but utterly at the mercy of circumstances beyond our control.