Preparedness Gets Popular

Sun Jul 27 16:28:00 -0700 2008
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A somewhat thorough but outside looking in look at the survivalist and preparedness movements today. The writer takes note of some of the past origins, and brings it up to date with peak oil fears, the economy in general, etc.

"There is greater interest in preparedness these days because the fragility of our economy, lengthening chains of supply and the complexity of the technological infrastructure have become apparent to a broader cross section of the populace,".. ed.z.: What I find funny all the time when non survivalists write about it is they continually fail to make the historical connection that for the longest period of time that humans have been on the planet, umpteen thousands of years, survivalism or practical preparedness was the norm, not the exception. It really only has been roughly since the latter half of the 20th century that it fell out of favor and started to be condescendingly hooted at. Well, we sort of quietly hoot right back, thinking of those folks as professional and willing victims of circumstances that they go way out of their way to make *not* in their control.

Anyway, a good enough article with that said, and I checked the wiki link in the article, it is good enough for a basic perusal, I don't see many flaws to it, seems fair. The James Wesley Rawles book mentioned is a novel, but the information in it can be considered text book, I've read it and couldn't find a single erroneous entry. As a novel, it has some fairly racy scenes, perhaps not suitable for younger readers, but for a writer's first novel, it just rocked. Put it this way, we heard from a number of insider sources that it scared the crap out of certain high levels of command and control.

Disclaimer 2 as well for the wiki link: in the listing for gary north, he is identified as a dominionist, this is true,(I am not and think it is nutso, but he has at least a middling fair record as an economist) but his quite extensive series of survival forums, that had a huge following, tens of thousands of readers, on this topic or that pre and slightly after y2k did not push that at all, he gave his editors and moderators, of which I was one of two "roaming moderators", completely free rein and we had just tons of good discussions for a long time, along with a lot of practical hands on, the nuts and bolts of doing it.

If I had to pick one single thing out of the thousands of posts I did there, it would be this, the simplest possible, survivalists are not running away from anything, they are running towards just a better and more independent life. I also was moderator on another forum for software semi guru ed yourdon, some of you have heard of him no douubt, similar meme and theme to his boards at the time.

To get it down to the most simple basic level,after all, the opposite of survivalist is ..non survivalist. And everyone gets to pick, whether they think they are..or not.

And it is like this transportation and energy question, there is no one size fits all method there to prepare, all circumstances are different, but a lot of the questions start out the same. If such and such..then what? Backups, and backups for backups. Boy sprout motto, "be prepared", the opposite is "be un-prepared". When you look at it that way, it makes a lot more sense and doesn't seem to be a bit extremist then, just rational and practical.

You have piece of paper contract insurance, promising some money or service for a "if such and such happens" scenario, then you have immediate in hand tangible insurance, which is the solution you have determined in advance is the best for you in any of what if scenarios, so you just go ahead and get it if it falls under "stuff", or acquire the skills, if it falls under "dang handy thing to know how to do". Why the piece of paper is considered normal, when the practical in hand is considered extreme or something to make fun of is ..well, it is crazy to me. Professional victim thinking or something. "Why, I don't need to backup my data, I have a new computer and this is a journaling file system" uh huh "why, I am the bestus driver in the whole world, everyone else drives like an idiot, and besides, I have car insurance, so I don't need to use a seatbelt". uh huh "This is a brand new house, I am just gonna hunker on down here with this cat 5 coming, and besides, I have insurance and joe government will be there with relief, within hours, if anything happens" uh huh professional victim thinking, and usually the ones quick to guffaw and put down preparedness. Choices and priorities, we all get to make them.

Preparedness Gets Popular
Sun Jul 27 18:35:54 -0700 2008
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Zogger, I'm not really sure what the big deal is. I mean, I live in an apartment in one of Australia's capital cities. I'm certainly not a survivalist, but I'm sure that if supply-chains collapsed tomorrow, I'd have 4 weeks worth of food (more if electricity stays on thanks to a chest freezer) in the house. (And several days worth of drinking water). It wouldn't be an exciting diet, but it'd be healthy enough. (Tinned tomatoes w/ pasta, breads etc from flour - all of these things could be made in the BBQ, under the hood).

I'd then be able to drive to the family farm (350km or so) where the livestock and grain silos would easily be able to keep us going for the indefinite future. Even were I not to drive, it'd be trivial to walk there inside of a few weeks.

In short: What's the big deal? Why should I care?

I enjoy being dependent upon others (in some ways) - it means there's far less work for me to do.

Preparedness Gets Popular
Mon Jul 28 07:35:35 -0700 2008
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If the supply chains collapse, what will other people be doing?

It is my belief that you have assumed that your drive/walk to the family farm will proceed unimpeded, and that once on that farm, that you will left alone to enjoy its bounty in peace.

Preparedness Gets Popular
Mon Jul 28 11:42:52 -0700 2008
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Not only that, but if he is as prepared as he states that puts him in probably the 0.01% percentile of the population. Maybe he doesn't need to worry and can sit back and feel safe, but up until $4 gas caused me to start supplementing from the larder, I had roughly one month's supply in the house, and felt that was inadequate by a factor of three. Even so, I had twice the amount of on-hand staples of anyone I know or talked to about it. Beyond that supply, I have no outside-of-normal-supply-chain methods to supplement my food stocks. There is no family farm or place to go as a backup. And for me to change addresses and go from my 3 mile commute to something long enough for me to get enough land to be gardenable, at the price I can afford, means adding a minimum of 15 miles one-way drive every day.

Concerned? You bet I am.

Preparedness Gets Popular
Sun Jul 27 19:53:35 -0700 2008
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Complex societies are a survival tool too, and have been since the first large-scale irrigation system. Working to keep them running and to fix looming bugs in them is a form of preparedness. Keeping emergency supplies on hand and learning basic medical skills is as practical as a spare tire, but it looks like a lot of the survivalist crowd wants to check out of large-scale society.

Preparedness Gets Popular
Sun Jul 27 20:14:43 -0700 2008
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Agree that people should "be prepared".  The conditions after WWII should really have taught people that.  When you remember the devastation caused in large cities in Europe and Japan and how people first, managed to survive, second, re-build their lives and their Cities, was absolutely amazing. 

I have a pack-pack filled and ready to go in case of emergency and stored food/water.

The price of oil is still falling and some commentators say the oil bubble has probably burst thanks largely to the strengthening US$. Long may it continue and may my back-pack gather dust.

Preparedness Gets Popular
Mon Jul 28 04:25:03 -0700 2008
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The notion of a complex society being a survival tool is important.  The question I think most survivalists are asking is whether the organization of this society is truly capable of handling its duties. 

Part of the reason why this question is so valid is because the technologies we use to build and maintain large societies is having problems with scalability.  It is based upon fossil fuels.  It is based upon an aging transportation infrastructure.  It is based upon shrinking farm-land assets, insufficient fresh water supplies, and so on and so forth.

What we need are new societies, with sustainable technologies for the future.  We need water re-use.  We need better recycling.  We need reliable and renewable energy sources.  We need to build better transportation infrastructure.  All of these problems are coming together at once. 

I tend to agree with you that survivalists are checking out instead of fixing the problem.  If I were to bet upon something, I'd bet on societies fixing their problems.  Frankly, I don't want to survive.  I want to live. Still, we have ruins in archeology that indicate that this isn't always a sure bet.  What they're doing may be a cop-out, but I won't say they're wrong.

Preparedness Gets Popular
Mon Jul 28 14:56:25 -0700 2008
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> What they're doing may be a cop-out, but I won't say they're wrong.

It's unclear to me what they are doing. Putting some extra rice in the pantry and installing a water tank? Is there more to it than that?

Preparedness Gets Popular
Mon Jul 28 18:37:36 -0700 2008
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Yes, one can install private water purification systems, private power systems off the grid, stocking supplies of firewood to be used efficiently in wood stoves, use locally grown food, supplemented by sufficient supplies to last through problems that might be caused by transportation difficulties.  Some might even decide to own a small armory of weapons for self defense, or to be used with a local militia to defend against mauraders. 

The key element to this kind of behavior is a mistrust of one's society to provide these key resources.  And to a degree, I think everyone should cultivate a bit of self suffciency.  We shouldn't expect our governments to bail us out just because we can't seem to keep a week's worth of groceries and fresh water on hand.

Billboards pushing the theme

Mon Jul 28 09:14:38 -0700 2008
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I noticed a number of billboards around Michigan and Indiana lately that had very low-key disaster preparedness / survivalist messages. I'm not sure how long they've been going or how wide-spread. Other factors are probably more influential, such as the fragile economy and even more fragile logistics for food production and distribution are probably larger, and the new round of further decreased efficiency brought on by the current batch of MS products being pushed into the US market right now.

Stockpiling will only help for smaller, shorter crises. Larger or longer ones involving partial or full collapse of order won't be helped by stockpiling. As pointed out by someone else here, you are unlikely to be allowed to enjoy the bounty/stockpile in peace.

Billboards pushing the theme
Mon Jul 28 16:49:00 -0700 2008
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This is the same question you need to answer when you consider other forms of spendable wealth. How are you going to protect it and yourself if you actually get to needing it?

all the best,

drew