Technocrat

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks

Bruce Perens
Sun Aug 24 16:43:00 -0700 2008
Politics.
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I've just returned from two weeks of camping with my family in Sequoia / Kings Canyon, June Lakes, and Yosemite. It was a wonderful trip, but I couldn't help but notice that it seemed very much like camping in Europe, because we were literally surrounded by Europeans!

All were very nice, and we made some friends that we'll keep. But the numbers were alarming. A docent at California's Bodie (ghost town) State Historic Park told me that just over 1/4 of the cars proceeding down their 3-mile dirt road included Americans. This is dispite the fact that our poor economy has many Americans doing "stay-cations", trips to destinations within a single tank of gas from home. But Europeans still dominated the mix.

The Euro has almost doubled against the U.S. Dollar during the Bush administration (0.8252 USD per EUR on 26-October 2000, 1.5835 USD per EUR on July 11). The USA is thus "on sale" for European tourists this summer. Of course the increase in tourism will pump up our economy slightly, but the USA is not some Bahamian island that can be supported by tourism.

The converse is that it's about twice as expensive as it used to be for Americans to travel in Europe. Much of my work is there, and I generally don't buy anything overseas any more. While there, I eat from supermarkets and fast-food joints rather than good restaurants. I stay in the cheap places around London's Earls Court, and they cost over $100 USD per night.

I wonder how different things might have been if the U.S. didn't freak out after 9/11, cocooning ourselves in fear of terrorism and starting wars on two fronts that are bleeding our economy with no exit in sight. I was in London for the two most recent subway incidents: one a real bombing, the second in which the UK police slaughtered an innocent Brazillian man mistargeted as a terrorist. Everybody went home on the tube as usual after both those events and most importantly they didn't let terrorists make them live in terror. Of course, they'd had lots of practice with the Blitz, the Troubles, etc.

The Bush administration used 9/11 for its own purposes: they'd planned an Iraq invasion before taking office, and the Patriot Act, passed a mere 20 days after the September 11 event, must have been written beforehand. They took an economy that everybody knew was fragile with housing inflation, and added the straw of war spending to that camel's back while feeding their cronies from those same war funds.

We need a change from that. And whatever leadership we elect, their first job has to be to lead us not to live in fear.

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
Aero
Sun Aug 24 18:38:40 -0700 2008
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Obviously there isn't a lot of history with the Euro, but if you compare the Pound vs. Dollar over the past 50 years, it is obvious that current exchange rate isn't unusual at all. And compared to the 1970s, the current 1GBP to 1.85USD rate is a pretty good deal.

It is almost like there are economic cycles or something...

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
Bruce Perens
Sun Aug 24 18:53:40 -0700 2008
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From 1983 to 2002 we see around 1.5 USD to UKP. Then it jumps up to 2. It's pretty clear that it correlates with political events.

Sure, there are cycles, but it's misleading to think of them as economic rather than political cycles.

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
Aero
Sun Aug 24 19:39:17 -0700 2008
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Sure, there are cycles, but it's misleading to think of them as economic rather than political cycles.

Pretty clear to you. But if you consider all of the facts - in particular, the US interest rates, would point to the economic cause. You might argue that the economy is depressed because of the response to 9/11, but it isn't as through the world is punishing the US for that. It is just business; US interest rates are low, so the money goes elsewhere.

And a weak dollar isn't a bad thing (unless you are traveling overseas or buying European goods). It isn't only tourism ($30 billion is nothing to sneeze at) that benefits, but also goods that are exported and everyone in the US that produces them. For one thing, it is making IT outsourcing much more expensive and less attractive to US companies.

Anyway, it is interesting that you decided to post this now, especially since it appears to be reversing.

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
maethorechannen
Tue Aug 26 04:51:24 -0700 2008
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From 1983 to 2002 we see around 1.5 USD to UKP. Then it jumps up to 2

 

You sure? It's seems to me like it's always hovered around 2:1, except in the mid to late 90s when it went down to 1.6:1

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
Matt T
Sun Aug 24 18:55:13 -0700 2008
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While in Las Vegas for a wedding last month, I also noticed a higher than usual proportion of Western European tourists. I also attributed it to the Euro's strength, or the Dollar's weakness, and some good overseas marketing. If the Americans aren't playing, the casinos will get the Europeans.

As for our collective reaction following Sept. 11, 2001, we The People own it. The Government does not do whatever it wants. It does whatever We let it do. We chose the illusion of security over freedom and to look the other way in the prelude to Iraq, and then allow there to be no change since the 2006 elections

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
rubycodez
Sun Aug 24 19:47:14 -0700 2008
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but in the 2006 election the people wanted change and Democrats were given a golden opportunity, yet they largely just let the Republicans lead them around by the nose on major issues, even in the past couple months most of them have been spineless and worthless and just marched to the Republican's cadence.

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
Matt T
Sun Aug 24 20:26:21 -0700 2008
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That is the truly puzzling part to me. It is bad enough that we will not know the truth about Iraq until fifty years from now (like the Kennedy assassination), but why is there no real political movement? Whether Iraq was right or wrong, there should be a lot more disussion, that or all that has been said against it has been just political posturing and there was a real perceived need to invade Iraq.

I used to think along Republican lines, their tale being more about personal responsibility and using personal charity, untaxed and not bureaucratic charity if you like, to help each other. Then they became "Neo-Cons" which are really out there in some ways, not quite fascist but might like it if they thought it possible to succeed. Then the Democrats, their tale being one of helping the common man, what happened there? Aside from empty promises to help everyone, including those who do not want or need help, I have no idea what that party stands for anymore. Neither was my friend before 2001. Neither is my friend now. Both appear to want to own me.

Somewhere in the 1990's the two opposites became one. -1 + 1 = 0, and that is what we have, zero.

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
Bruce Perens
Sun Aug 24 21:16:08 -0700 2008
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Uh-huh. And I'm pretty disappointed in that. I've pretty much given up on Pelosi, even though she's from my own state. A Democratic presidential win might only be an incremental change, rather than the real change we need. But a Republican win would probably mean movement in the wrong direction.

"Bruce Perenson"?

Simon Arthur
Sun Aug 24 22:47:35 -0700 2008
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This is joke, right?

"Bruce Perenson"?
Bruce Perens
Sun Aug 24 23:11:07 -0700 2008
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Hm. It reads as "Bruce Perens on Sun Aug 24" here. That would be a style-sheet issue. What browser?

"Bruce Perenson"?
Simon Arthur
Mon Aug 25 09:08:45 -0700 2008
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Konqueror. The space is there, though it seems smaller than the other spaces. I feel a little silly.

"Bruce Perenson"?
Bruce Perens
Tue Aug 26 10:54:08 -0700 2008
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Don't feel silly, I've seen worse browser gremlins on my own workstation.

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
disco
Mon Aug 25 06:31:33 -0700 2008
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You're over-simplifying.

> The Euro has almost doubled against the U.S. Dollar during the Bush administration (0.8252 USD per EUR on 26-October 2000, 1.5835 USD per EUR on July 11)

The Euro was undervalued then and is overvalued now. A year from now my guess is it will be somewhere in the middle of those two numbers.

> The Bush administration used 9/11 for its own purposes: they'd planned an Iraq invasion before taking office, and the Patriot Act, passed a mere 20 days after the September 11 event, must have been written beforehand. They took an economy that everybody knew was fragile with housing inflation, and added the straw of war spending to that camel's back while feeding their cronies from those same war funds.

Agreed, they used it for their own purposes, but the Iraq thing is more complicated. There were members of the administration who thought Iraq was unfinished business, but the leadership pre-2001 had a "I'm not getting involved" foreign policy. The Bush administration were basically hermits pre-September-11, and I believe would have remained so if not for the event.

As for the economy, you overplay the responsibility on the government. Although I'd agree the Iraq war is expensive, the majority of economic problems right now are due to the greed and stupidity of banks and real-estate investors, all of which would have occurred regardless of who was in power. Even if you blame the Greenspan Fed's low interest rates through-out the 2000s as part of the problem, the Bush administration had little to do with that. Greenspan was appointed by Reagan. Take the Iraq war out of the picture and I don't think the economic woes would be much different.

But agreed, the Iraq war was a mistake, the Bush administration is incompetent, secretive, and ethically corrupt. Also agreed that, as a generalization, the Brit public handle terrorism significantly better than in the US, but they're far from perfect themselves. The US Patriot Act is a walk in the park compared to some of the Brit surveilance.

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
Spider
Tue Aug 26 01:22:44 -0700 2008
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It is true that economic factors and the strong Euro is allowing Europeans to travel more. I think you will find that the US$ will regain its strength against other currencies in the near future.  The US was (and still is) being hit very hard by the sub-prime debacle, the effects of which are really just starting to be felt in Europe (and other places).

European countries are starting to talk more about recessions and a lot of people are being sacked from many big financial institutions. Something of which London and the UK economy is based on. The possibility of a world wide depression should not be ruled out. Singapore is pouring a lot of money into the major banking systems to try and prevent this.

I don't think you can compare the explosions (mainly unseen) in London and the reaction to them,  with the destruction of the Twin Towers.  The attack on the Twin Towers was so spectacular and viewed via the media nation wide and world wide it was no wonder that people of the USA "freaked" out and had to "hit out" at some one (considering the nationalities of those involved it should have been Saudi Arabia).  Perhaps a "new broom" in the White House will sweep clean the troubles that beset the USA and start a world wide recovery.

It's August

maethorechannen
Tue Aug 26 04:26:07 -0700 2008
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Isn't most of Europe on holiday right now? My collegue in our Paris office has just come back after 3 weeks off. Maybe the reason why there are more Europeans in the US National Parks is that there are more Europeans than Americans on holiday at the moment and they're making the most of of the USD-EUR exchange rate.

Americans Vastly Outnumbered by Europeans in Our Own National Parks
maethorechannen
Tue Aug 26 04:49:37 -0700 2008
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two most recent subway incidents: one a real bombing, the second in which the UK police slaughtered an innocent Brazillian man mistargeted as a terrorist. Everybody went home on the tube as usual

 

7/7 and 21/7 or 21/7 and the day after? I always think of 21/7 and the Demenez shooting as parts of the same incident (a failed bombing attack soon after 7/7 that caused the police to go nuts). While I didn't even get halfway to work before turning round on 7/7, I wouldn't call the tube ride home on 7/21 as "usual". It took awhile before it felt usual again.

Cheap places to stay in London

ziv
Tue Aug 26 06:05:28 -0700 2008
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>I stay in the cheap places around London's Earls Court, and they cost over $100 USD per night.

There are slightly cheaper bed&breakfast hotels around Argyle Street, Kings Cross. It depends how downmarket you want to go.

£39 a night for a single involves shared shower/toilet and usually a lumpy mattress.

The Kings Cross area is less rough than it used to be.

Cheap places to stay in London
GuyFawkes
Tue Aug 26 16:14:31 -0700 2008
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The Kings Cross area is less rough than it used to be.

The same could be said for Beirut...

 

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