US Economic Schism Growing

Sun Aug 03 16:08:00 -0700 2008
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There is a fast widening split in the US economically, it's in the middle of what is loosely termed "middle class" and obviously the split and hurt is being felt more at the low end. Recent minor minimum wage hikes aren't even close to addressing real world price hikes for most everything, and the situation is getting dire for a lot of people as they are forced to not choose between necessities and luxuries, but just between necessities. According to the article, a lot of those folks at that end still have hope for the future, but that is easy enough to see how that is possible, hope by itself costs $0 and still won't pay bill one.

For many low-wage workers, financial struggles persist and anxiety is high even when the economy is humming. Most of them occupy an uneasy and often overlooked place on the nation's economic spectrum, hovering above poverty but still grasping for the relative comfort of the middle class. ed.z.: you can throw all the numbers in terms of dollars at any situation you want, but bottom line is, at minimum rage levels and a little above, the subject of the above article, you are trading hours of labor for other goods and services. And I contend, when you look at it that way, that globalization for a lot of people in the US has been an outright disaster. I've mused on this before and offer a general perspective from back when we didn't have near as much fast globalization and the US was still a manufacturing -wealth production- powerhouse for all goods, not just a few goods. We still produced wealth then in the real sense, we weren't "in debt", we had general savings, etc, totally different now. The US made everything, from sneakers to moon rockets, televisions to every piece of furniture and appliance in the house, almost all the clothes people wore, made here, and so on. all of the above.

Then and now. Minimum wage=one hour labor for this example. Then- 4-5 gallons gasoline per hour worked, now 1.5 gallons. Bread on sale, 5 loaves for one hour, now 2 loaves. Hamburger or chopped meat 5 lbs per hour worked, now 2.5 lbs. A brand new normal non exotic car was around 1500-1800 hours labor, now 2500-2800. And similar for all other ancillary costs, heating, your electric bill, medical insurance (that is way high now, absolutely no comparison, it used to be more or less ridiculous cheap for coverage, very few jobs didn't have at least a medical plan with them, even part time jobs had it at subsidy). I am just not seeing the advantages at all. I worked at minimum rage back then and could afford an apartment that was decent, a good enough used car, all the good food I could eat plus a few restaurant meals a week, entertainment, mild travel and vacation, some savings, and so on, on a *minimum wage* pay scale. Anything above that, say an entry level union manufacturing job or construction job, that was plenty of cash. No want for anything. No worries.

I can technically understand the *theory* of globalization, that is easy enough, but am not seeing the actual "in practice" advantages from a US low end perspective (which is how I relate to this article). I can get lead based toys and dogfood at walmart cheaper? Oh goody... now, to be fair, a few things are definitely cheaper no matter what, computers at the top of the list, they didn't even exist for joe sixpack back then, and the breakup of ma bell giving us at least some reasonable affordable time to talk to friends and relatives long distance. But that had nothing to do with globalization either, just they wanted to stave off outright revolt over it once it became apparent that tech advances had made their pricing models and monopoly status completely unacceptable. The TV show Laugh In probably had as much to do with that as anything, just shamed them so much and it was so obvious and all.

Most everything else though...not seeing any advantage, just pseudo wealth numbers they trot out on cue based on illusionary credit IOUs for the future generations to deal with, they go way out of their way to equate credit with produced wealth and call that a good economy. Well, no, it isn't. It is a slick way to separate wealth from huge numbers of people and get it into the hands of a smaller number of people, but just creating a thousand new forms of IOUs is not wealth production. And according to that article and a slew of others, a LOT of people are sliding downhill into that economic range and fast, and once below that point it is one paycheck from poverty out on the street. I don't know what is going to give first, but something is.

US Economic Schism Growing
Sun Aug 03 18:00:38 -0700 2008
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I'm noticing this more and more - even here in Australia. Between us, my wife and I combined earn a fair bit over $100k p/a and I wouldn't consider us at all well off.

Sure, we've got it a lot easier than someone on the minimum wage, but there are no lavish international holidays, or caviar dinners or anything like that.

More so than fuel, the cost of housing has gone up so sharply in recent years that the average house in an Australian capital city is so far out of reach of anyone earning the average wage, let alone a minimum wage, that it's just not funny.

We have one car between us, as 12 year old VW Golf, we have a mortgage that's gone up $100's in the past few years with interest rate rises, we conserve water and electricity, and we are not struggling by any stretch of the imagination, but we're not super well-off either...

We're looking at moving in closer to the city, currently living around 20-25km from the CBD, and we've got no realistic way of affording to move any closer to the city, unless we downsize to something that's half what we have now, and then we'd still be paying $100-200k on top of what we could realistically sell our place for...

Don't even get me started on petrol price increases!

US Economic Schism Growing
Sun Aug 03 20:44:35 -0700 2008
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Probably doesn't help that the idiots in charge use monetary inflation to lower real wages in a vain attempt to rein in price inflation that was caused by the monetary inflation in the first place.

You would think that the '70 would have demonstrated how wrong these theories are since stagflation by its very nature can not exist under the Keynesian model that is still used by the Powers That Be to fiddle and fuss with the economy.

Didn't actually read more than the first page of TFA so don't know who they are demonizing this time instead of placing the blame directly on the doorstep of the Fed where it belongs.

US Economic Schism Growing
Sun Aug 03 21:39:03 -0700 2008
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Lord Keynes is just as bad as Ricardo and Mises- all of them were looking at the world through the rose colored glasses of the basic assumption of capitalism "That which is best for me is best for everybody else also, as long as I make money at it".

That assumption is pure hogwash.  Without planning for the future, the human race is bound to fail for every famine that comes along.  Without LOCALIZED planning for the future, the planning just gets too complicated to manage properly.  Thus, "central" planning, "central" banks, and "central" chaotic markets are all designed for failure- we have them only because of the faith of unthinking individuals in the goodness of greed.

US Economic Schism Growing
Sun Aug 03 21:34:33 -0700 2008
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I can technically understand the *theory* of globalization, that is easy enough, but am not seeing the actual "in practice" advantages from a US low end perspective (which is how I relate to this article). I can get lead based toys and dogfood at walmart cheaper? Oh goody...

That's because the theory, while it looks good on paper and can be proven mathematically, is based upon assumptions that are pure hogwash in the real world.

Ricardo and Mises are not worth the unthinking worship certain libertarians give them- they are in fact liars of the first order, and their lies are being used to destroy the middle class in America.

US Economic Schism Growing
Sun Aug 03 23:19:49 -0700 2008
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What the hell is wrong with you?

Why you insist on the ad hominem attacks on every issue with absolutely no substance behind your assertations is beyond me.

Why don't you go learn what their positions were on issues like this instead of calling them 'liars of the first order' like some little kid who hasn't learned to reason on his own yet.

US Economic Schism Growing
Mon Aug 04 06:14:51 -0700 2008
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What the hell is wrong with you?

I should have thought that would have been obvious by now- I'm a skeptic with OCD who happens to see through your neurotypical reasoning.

Why don't you go learn what their positions were on issues like this instead of calling them 'liars of the first order' like some little kid who hasn't learned to reason on his own yet.

Because their positions are based on their assumptions, and their assumptions were lies.

For instance, the assumption that private property is a natural right.

Or another, the assumption that having wealth is a good thing.

These are nothing more than myths; intended to support the status quo.

US Economic Schism Growing
Mon Aug 04 09:22:27 -0700 2008
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Because their positions are based on their assumptions, and their assumptions were lies.

Yeah, that's what you get from listening to the god of Abraham and that Jesus guy.

For instance, the assumption that private property is a natural right.

You can't even make a counter-argument outside of the context of private property—what was your last one, the tree sprites own everything?

Or another, the assumption that having wealth is a good thing.

Well, you don't seem to mind living in luxury that even kings couldn't imagine a century ago.

How did this happen you may wonder, how did humanity break out of the abject poverty of the Dark Ages?

I'll leave you to ponder over that since you believe the feudalistic Dark Ages was the pinnacle of society.

But, anyway, all you do is make unsupported assertions. You have yet to show how private property is a lie (aside from your equally unsupported belief that the tree sprites own everything) and how 'wealth' is an inherently bad thing. In fact, most of your statements contradict this position.

Oh, and what exactly is 'neurotypical reasoning', some PC term to make me feel guilty because I'm not 'special' or something?

US Economic Schism Growing
Mon Aug 04 16:57:18 -0700 2008
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Yeah, that's what you get from listening to the god of Abraham and that Jesus guy.

And the Dali Lama, and Guatama Buddha, and that Mohammed fellow....plus every medicine man or tribal chief for the last 1.5 million years.

You can't even make a counter-argument outside of the context of private property—what was your last one, the tree sprites own everything?

Just pointing out that the context of private property is just a much of a myth as anything else- that it isn't a universal truth nor is it obvious to everybody.  It's just yet another religious belief, held by those who think that Austrian Economists are god.

Well, you don't seem to mind living in luxury that even kings couldn't imagine a century ago.

Really?  You have servants dressing you in the morning, and an army of landscapers taking care of your house?

Luxury is very much in the eye of the beholder, and is NOT a universal value.

How did this happen you may wonder, how did humanity break out of the abject poverty of the Dark Ages?

Only materialists think that the Dark Ages was impoverished for a start.  The average peasant serf had far more freedom, for instance, than a modern man living in debt.

I'll leave you to ponder over that since you believe the feudalistic Dark Ages was the pinnacle of society.

Well, it was better than a society built out of debt slavery to self-styled "rich men" who worship a bunch of economists who couldn't even take criticism.

But, anyway, all you do is make unsupported assertions. You have yet to show how private property is a lie (aside from your equally unsupported belief that the tree sprites own everything) and how 'wealth' is an inherently bad thing. In fact, most of your statements contradict this position.

Depends upon your definition of wealth.  I personally think piling up numbers in a computer and calling it "money" is a waste of time and labor- that we'd be better off if the entire financial industry quit tomorrow and went to work in construction and agrictulture and manufacturing.

But then again, I think that rain is wet, so what do I know?

US Economic Schism Growing
Mon Aug 04 18:22:15 -0700 2008
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Why do you keep trying to drag Austrian economists into this? You act as if not only are they the only group of people on the planet who believe in private property but that the ruling elite actually follows their theories—both of which are blatantly false.

So I take it we're in agreement that every religious leader for the last 1.5 million years believed in private property then? Aside from the tree sprites of course.

Other than that all I see is a bunch of baseless accusations and ignorant ad hominem attacks, no actual argument at all.

I hate to be the one to break it to you but nobody cares enough about how you believe the world should be run to change their behavior so as to bring in your proposed return to serfdom, well, after the billions of people die off as you also advocate that is.

You should try 'neurotypical reasoning' sometime, it works pretty well in making a non-fallacious argument.

US Economic Schism Growing
Tue Aug 05 06:49:38 -0700 2008
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Why do you keep trying to drag Austrian economists into this? You act as if not only are they the only group of people on the planet who believe in private property but that the ruling elite actually follows their theories—both of which are blatantly false.

It's more that the ruling elite keeps quoting their obviously flawed theories at me whenever I point out the truth- that free trade only makes the rich richer and the poor poorer.

We'd be better off without liberty at all than forced into starvation by bad trade deals.

So I take it we're in agreement that every religious leader for the last 1.5 million years believed in private property then? Aside from the tree sprites of course.

No, we're not- in fact, philosophically, how can you own something that existed long before your race came into existance, and will exist long after the human species has disappeared from the universe forever?

Private property IS something the religious leaders believed in- they believed it was a horrible concept, often misused, to the sprititual destruction both of those who accumulated it and those to whom it was denied.

Other than that all I see is a bunch of baseless accusations and ignorant ad hominem attacks, no actual argument at all.

That's because you've proven yourself to be unable to step outside your ideological viewpoint and find another way.

I hate to be the one to break it to you but nobody cares enough about how you believe the world should be run to change their behavior so as to bring in your proposed return to serfdom, well, after the billions of people die off as you also advocate that is.

I don't care if they do or not.  That's the beauty of a truly distributed economy- as long as they're willing to leave my little corner of the planet and not come calling in with their fake "credit" cons, as long as they are willing to let me grow food on my place, as long as their armies leave me alone and protect me from other armies coming in to do the same damage, that's fine with me.

You should try 'neurotypical reasoning' sometime, it works pretty well in making a non-fallacious argument.

See, that's the problem with neurotypicals- they think everybody is like them, and that their "reasoning" is something other than making excuses for bad behavior after the fact.

US Economic Schism Growing
Mon Aug 04 10:06:00 -0700 2008
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Ricardo and Mises are not worth the unthinking worship certain libertarians give them- they are in fact liars of the first order, and their lies are being used to destroy the middle class in America.

Their lies aren't what's destroying the middle class in America. Technology is largely the culprit. I define technology as "the application of knowledge to gain an advantage". Those who use technology effectively have an advantage over those who don't. And technology today has reached a stage where that advantage is considerable.

Let's take a simple job: digging ditches. And let's explore this task from the bottom of the economic scale to the top.

Starting at the extreme end of poverty, you have somebody who is basically naked. Lacking any kind of technological application, he/she is armed with his/her hands and the ditch-digging is very, very slow.

Add a smidgeon of technology - a stick - and you find that the ditch digging increases significantly. Being able to loosen up the dirt before scratching at it with your fingers does improve your performance markedly. Let's say the going is now 5x faster than bare fingers. 

Enter in the iron age, and put a flat, iron wedge at the end of the stick. Now it's a shovel, and the same tool you use for loosening the dirt now is able to dig it out in a smooth, easy motion. I think it's safe to assume that performance now improves another 5x.

Then we add still more technology like horses and dynamite. Dynamite dramatically improves performance when digging ditches in extremely rocky soil, and horses allow for the moving and carrying of castoffs over long distances. In rocky or difficult cases, these technologies add as much as 100x performance! Since most ditches aren't dug in rocky soil, we'll assume (for the sake of argument and simplicity) that these add another 5x overall performance from the previous stage of technology. 

Then, we get into the machine age. Steam and/or gasoline engines driving hydraulic buckets, able to move a houseful of dirt and/or rocks at once. Very expensive to develop, but raw performance is so dramatically improved it goes off the scale. Assume *another* 5x in general performance.

Improvements in manufacturing and distribution then make it highly affordable for just about anyone to use a backhoe. Today, I can rent a backhoe for an afternoon, and pay for it with money earned *that day*. That effectively brings the cost of the technology so close to zero that just about anyone can take advantage of it. If I do it every day, I probably should buy my own equipment to reduce long-term costs. But I sure don't have to. This makes the use of the technology even more accessible and improves overall ditch-digging performance yet another order of magnitude, because *anyone* can do it. Assume at least another 5x in general performance.

Notice the trend?

It's not just that each stage of technology improves performance - it's that each stage of technological advancement improves overall performance exponentially. And even though we accept that pay scales do not mirror performance 1:1, we will pay the guys with a backhoe WAY more than we'd pay the po' folks with shovels.

And the advance of technology is so incredibly cheap, nowadays. If you are smart and careful, the cost of a startup can be realized in well under $250,000. And it doesn't have to be cash. If you have some reasonable skills, you can easily pay with your time. And you can get many reasonable skills for $100 worth of books at your local bookstore.

Technology is cheaper today than ever. Those you find at the top of the payscale are increasingly those who discover the power of today's technology and make effective use of it. Those who are poor are those who still think that "working hard" is more valuable than "working smart".

Want to get rich? Find the highest "high tech" that you can manage, and become an expert in it. By definition, you are leveraging the hardest with the most advanced technology. Use the technology to create wealth: reduce expenses for your clients while giving them new capabilities, watch your expenses carefully, and go for it!

Back to the "middle class": The unfortunate side effect of this change, the advance of technology (especially, information technology) is that you increasingly don't have the choice to NOT go for it. You either take advantage of the rapid advancements in technology, or you get left in the dirt. It's a side-effect of the technology singularity. It's real. It's not a joke or an "academic concept". As the doubling time of technology shrinks, the apparent stability of our economic class system becomes increasingly shaky.

Get used to it - it's going to get worse long before it gets better, if it's ever possible to return to the "good old days" of the traditional economic classes! I suspect that the new order of stability will be based around an increasing form of socialism, which closely mirrors what society has, in fact, been doing for the past 50 years! More and more of the G8 are socialistic, with socialized medicine, low-income benefits, and the like on the rise.

US Economic Schism Growing
Mon Aug 04 13:50:37 -0700 2008
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I suspect that the new order of stability will be based around an increasing form of socialism, which closely mirrors what society has, in fact, been doing for the past 50 years! More and more of the G8 are socialistic, with socialized medicine, low-income benefits, and the like on the rise.

Unfortunately socialism is an impossible dream.

The G8 social programs were built on the back of the built up capital from the freer days where there was minimal interference in the market. These days all that capital has been used up as can be seen by every government program having immediate effects on the economy that wasn't the case when they started out on this journey post-WWII.

I can think of no entitlement program that isn't at least partially unfunded over the short term and near impossible for the long. Corporate income taxes are so high that businesses are leaving the country in droves (globalism is all about cheap labor?) and the worker's wages are in such dire straights because of the double taxation of inflation and income tax that it would be political suicide to even suggest increasing the burden placed upon them.

Europe covered their social program deficit mostly through the sale of bonds (just like the US) to China who was both subsidizing their exports and trying to keep domestic inflation down. It doesn't look too good for that source of income in the future as the BRIC nations are taking off in their own right so now the G8 is left with the question of how to continue funding all these programs that are both politically popular and unable to be paid for.

The US is in slightly better shape since we haven't fully gone down the government monopoly of 'essential' services route but that will change as soon as St. Obama gets his hands on the reins of power. The real problem will be how to fund anything since the federal deficit has been effectively doubled through the bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie May to something like $15 trillion.

Did I also mention that socialism is impossible?

US Economic Schism Growing
Mon Aug 04 17:02:32 -0700 2008
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And so back to what I was really talking about:

Want to get rich? Find the highest "high tech" that you can manage, and become an expert in it. By definition, you are leveraging the hardest with the most advanced technology. Use the technology to create wealth: reduce expenses for your clients while giving them new capabilities, watch your expenses carefully, and go for it!

At which point some kid halfway around the world with a subsidised education will be perfectly willing to become just as expert as you are- and work for 1/100th your minimum wage.

Working Smarter is already going the way of working harder- you're completely right about technology becomeing cheaper being the problem, but a lack of socialistic protectionism is also a huge part of the problem, because that kid raised in socialism was able to become an expert in half the time and a fraction of the cost that you are in the first world.

Is Raising the Minimum Wage RIght?

Mon Aug 04 03:41:04 -0700 2008
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In the last few months I have read many articles about the minimum wage, the benefits, the downsides, the alleged downsides.  Besides hearing a lot of pretty silly arguments both for and against, the one thing I sort of walked away with was this idea that while Minimum Wage is on the whole a pretty good idea, it was treating a symptom rather than the disease and thus never going to accomplish all of what it really needed to accomplish.

 

Also I could say much the same thing about “globalization” and of “NAFTA” … a lot of silly arguments for and against and I walked the idea that we may never know if either is a really good idea because the people who are negatively effected by such things are very, very, very much not a priority for the ruling class.  If they were, it is entirely possible that a host of really interesting things could be going on using the benefits of globalization to enable those negatively effected to change their lives in such way as to benefit.

 

Lastly I have a hard time being sympathetic with many people who are now feeling the economic pinch.  Extremist Consumerism is, and has been, the high fashion in the US.  People made serious decisions with long term obligations which were predicated on cheap & easy credit and on cheap & easy energy.  All the while there are events demonstrating that neither energy or credit are either cheap or easy.  All the while ignoring the advice of folks warning that such decisions probably weren’t the best way to proceed.  And look at what they got for this mainstream “consumer” products  are universally defined as being far more style that substance… cheap plastic crap, toys with lead inside, food of little to no nutritious value, disposable energy inefficient & polluting cars.  That’s no better than spending all your money on hookers and gin.

Is Raising the Minimum Wage RIght?
Tue Aug 05 20:51:50 -0700 2008
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A minimum wage is needed and should keep pace with inflation, especially in a global economy. People need to have a minimum standard of living defined by their culture. This is assuming that they choose to work. I gave up on places like RentaCoder as there was no way for me to compete on cost and I did not have the experience to compete on skill.

NAFTA and globalization are great, for the large companies positioned to make money from them. I do mean "make", not "earn". I might have missed it, but I've not heard of any new jobs being created in the US, only of jobs moving South, since NAFTA. There must have been more inspectors hired for the ports and border entry points, right? And the factory worker in the US picks up a job in the service industry, with less real income, to buy cheaper stuff made elsewhere. The C*O and Investor class get the difference.

I agree on the greedy consumerism being way over the top, well into avarice.

Is Raising the Minimum Wage RIght?
Thu Aug 07 06:55:49 -0700 2008
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Actually, I personally think we need a steady state economy- not only an international minimum wage- but to stop inflation/deflation and the incredibly idiotic business cycle, we also need an international MAXIMUM wage.

Is Raising the Minimum Wage RIght?
Thu Aug 07 18:13:01 -0700 2008
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Maybe link the minimum salary to the maximum salary within a company, say the maximum is no more than 100 times the minimum. An $8 hour 40 hr per week employee grosses $16,640 with the highest paid C*O making $1,664,000.

US Economic Schism Growing
Mon Aug 04 10:31:41 -0700 2008
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globalization winners > globalization losers, by a billion or so.