Thomas may have come late to the party, but he finally rung the
bell that nobody else touched.
This says that we aren't all getting fibred up the wazoo
because quite frankly the internet is just a discretionary
expense, and while it is quite common for a household to
"make a return" of having a telephone, a car, paying
rent etc, that isn't the case for the intarweb.
Thomas goes on to say that he basically has enough bandwidth now
for the Internet.
Thomas is right, this is the reason it isn't seen as a
priority by anyone, and why calling the cable company to report
loss of the internet is always going to be a low priority
compared to reporting loss of the TV sports channels.
It really isn't that important, which is why it is quite easy
to dismiss the whole idea due to the vast size of the USA and low
population density.
We have just created the self perpetuating myth.
I will issue a challenge, and defy anyone to find anyone for whom
"the internet" was actually just a cost centre.
I will issue a challenge like this because I've issued it
before, and won it before, and always on the same terms, with the
subject saying "well, you know, I've never really looked
at it like that before."
E-mail alone ensures that home internet is exactly like business
internet, and not a cost centre.
"Ah, but if I didn't have the internet I wouldn't be
emailing so much!" yeah, and if you didn't have a car
you wouldn't be driving everywhere, specious argument.
I am currently converting my mill and lathe to CNC control, and
make no mistake, none of that would be possible at anywhere near
the actual cost if it weren't for the internet connection at
home, not just sourcing parts or info, or buying software and
having it electronically delivered.
If the only way to find out about and buy Linux (insert distro
flavour of choice here) was to buy a dead tree magazine that the
distro paid for advertising space in, then send off a cheque,
possibly internationally, then wait for the postman to deliver a
CD, well folks, Linux would cost just about exactly the same as
Windows.
Linux in particular and Open Source software in general is a
child of the internet, before the internet (and I remember it
well) the closest you could come was your local shareware library
vendor, sneakernet on floppy.
No internet doesn't just mean no Linux as we know it, it
means no alternative to the 200 dollar operating system and 200
dollar per suite of application software as we know it.
Bill Gates spectacularly under-estimated the impact of the
internet in the Windows Chicago era, really, this was an error of
judgement on a par with IBM granting MicroSoft that infamous
licence.
Today, to say that phat pipes to the home as a Universal Service
is not necessary is quite frankly an error of judgement on just
as grand a scale.
Just look at us all posting and replying here, before the
internet there was the BBS, and before that there was putting a
stamp on an envelope and writing a letter to the editor, and then
buying the paper again to see if your letter had been published.
To make the claim, as Thomas has, that the pipes we have are fat
enough (even Zog on dial up) for "The Internet" is to
get the picture hung upside down, this is a clear case of making
an assumption that the pipes were built sufficient to carry the
content out there, when what actually happened was the content
always lead the pipe capacity, and all that has happened NOW is
that generally speaking (500 kilobyte home pages aside) one
specific form of content, namely http web page text publishing,
is mature enough that most pipes, even Zog's, can carry it
adequately.
To declare that this is a watershed, and "sufficient"
is like declaring that the weekly Cunard sailing from Liverpool
to the USA is enough and sufficient. Stop the world, I want to
get off.
Back when I was paying a 5 pence connection charge and a penny a
minute to connect at 9,600 baud to fido and we were talking about
this new fangled internet thing over the horizon then yeah,
Thomas was right, it was indeed a money pit, which is why only
the self selected few were online, and boy I can remember the
first time I met an actual woman who felt the same way, weird.
By the time xDLS always on connections came along however the net
had ceased to become a money pit, at that point on balance the
net saved you more money that it cost you to maintain a certain
standard of living.
Every year since then as the inflation adjusted cost per X-abyte
transferred has fallen that particular bit of mathematics has
made the net an ever better bargain investment, speaking
personally the net has both earned and saved me more money than
everything else combined.
But Thomas is right, in that he is indeed stating a common
perception of the truth, that the net is an expense, and not a
vital one at that, and it is from that common conception that we
can form opinions such as the one that states that due to the
vast size of the USA it is simply unrealistic to expect everyone
to get fibred up.
When I state quite plainly that this is the exact same size
country that has utility electric running everywhere and metalled
roads running everywhere it gets dismissed, because everyone
thinks the net is just an expense, not an essential part of
civilisation like roads or power.
No Thomas, I do not pretend to know what you would do with a
gigabit up/down for 50 bucks a month, and more than a buggy whip
maker would have known what use an interstate would be, or a
candlemaker would have known what use a 3 phase supply would have
been, or the pony express riders would know what use direct
dialled telephones would be.
Saying we cannot afford to run gigabit to everyone is like saying
we can't afford to run roads to everyone or electric to
everyone IF YOU LOOK AT THEM FROM THE SAME ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE,
it would be utterly insane to build a nationwide electrical grid
if there were no domestic electrical goods or industrial
electrical equipment available for purchase, and utterly insane
to build a nationwide road grid if there were no vehicles.
SURE, we can let the markets work it out, growth and sales moving
hand in hand, slowly, slowly, slowly.
OR, you can adopt a "build it and they will come"
mentality, also known as an industrial revolution, so the only
question really is, "where do you want your kids to grow
up?" Some third world technological backwater where
everything you can shake a stick at is expensive unobtanium, or a
modern country where pretty much anything is available at
reasonable cost?
BT offered to roll out nationwide fibre 20+ years ago.
STOP AND THINK!
In 1998 when technology companies were springing up all over the
planet, think of an alternate world where you could, at great
expense, connect computers at 9600 baud, or at serious expense a
staggering 32 kilobit leased line, or you could go to this island
nation in europe where they were rolling out fibre and man, the
speeds were just insane, and getting insaner all the time as
laser development progressed, you know? that file that you just
took four days to transfer would take, like, 2 minutes or
something insane like that.
Every financial institution on the planet would be there for a
start, because not being there meant an active disadvantage
compared to those who were there.
High tech industry, that's a given, Microsoft would just
move, so would Cisco, IBM and Intel, sure, might leave the fabs
in "third world technology" countries to save money..
The whole CNC industry, that's a given.
The entire mobile phone industry, that's a given.
Those asian "tiger" economies... yeah.
Thatcher's decision to stop BT from rolling out fibre in
exchange for being able to shove telly down it too was by far the
costliest economic mistake ever made in this country, and quite
frankly it is not like it wasn't obviously a stupid mistake
at the time too.
Now WE are sitting here with our thumbs up our asses nodding
sagely that it is just too expensive and not needed anyway,
meanwhile other nations have leapfrogged us and the inevitable
results of that are incubating in their 100 megabit and up
networks, and we thing the new hybrid hummer and KFC recipe and
reality tv show is going to power us economically into the
2010's and 2020's.....
you want to know where that kind of "well the US is just too
big to fibre up" thinking gets you?
nearly FORTY years ago you could put a 4x4 on the moon, now
you're reduced to hitch-hiking lifts off the russkies, and
hoping they don't think you smell to bad to catch a ride
because you've been playing in georgia.
I must have crowded your draw. Too hasty. Snatch and miss. That
one whistled by my ear. I guess I get another shot now. I'll
try to be clearer making my point this time. Not more direct,
mind you -- just clearer ;-)
Back around 1987 I was part of a "test user" group
around the campus of Carnegie Mellon University. We were testing
an early stab at what would later become DSL. In particular, as
the test group, we were given some very fancy new fangled modems
that could talk out of band (i.e., with concurrent voice traffic)
on twisted-pair copper at 9600 or maybe 19.2 KBaud. This was
quite amazing, for its time: I could be chatting on the phone
with someone, fire up my PC, turn on the modem, run a terminal
emulator program, and instantly get a log-in prompt from a
computer on campus (all while still talking on the phone).
A few years later the speeds went up and traffic went from
dial-up to IP traffic -- the rest is history. I hear it said that
the cable co's also learned to carry IP on all that coax they
laid, so there's that, too.
Pretty soon we reached the stage of "bandwidth-enough"
for basic web apps. And, indeed: our household spending patterns,
the transaction costs for paying utilities, our capacity to
advertise and sell stuff: all went through the roof, relatively
speaking. As a younger person, finding work meant literally
spending some shoe leather, literally knocking on doors. These
days I can save dollars on shoe leather by spending pennies on
bandwidth. On and on: in lots of little ways, you're right --
the Internet is not just a "cost center" to most
households.
We aren't just talking about "the Internet" though.
We're talking specifically about a marginal increase in
bandwidth (real broadband vs. what we have). The question is:
where is the value in that?
So, yeah, the country is wired for electricity and making that
ubiquitous was indeed a political cause -- a social policy
decision -- at one point. At the point that occurred, light bulbs
and electric refrigeration were already on the market -- already
in production for mass consumption. And light and refrigeration
are huge profit-making tools for households. They are profound in
their impact on lifestyle.
Around that same time, phonographs and radio came into mass
production. Notice that you saw no political cause around
universalizing those services! Awfully nice technology there: but
nothing vital.
Around the same time, phone service really took off. Some
functionality of the telephone was seen as vital, like lights and
refrigeration. Universal service / life-line service was
implemented.
Now, what services are around, waiting in the wings to
justify the bandwidth gain of going to "real"
broadband?
Not only is nothing obviously vital there to use that bandwidth,
what is there to use that bandwidth looks like snake oil!
Oh, boy, movies and TV. Oh, boy, unreliable phone service. Oh,
boy, unrestricted porn. Oh, boy, with all the hot properties
operated by power movers and shakers who are already too big for
their britches.
Suppose I have some "social policy" capital to spend on
a quarter-million new workers, trained to be techs.
On the one hand, I could make it easier for Netflix or Comcast to
send me the latest hollywood releases over the net.
On the other hand I can train a bunch of them to install solar
panels or (homage to zogger) insulation and shiny roofing
materials.
See where I'm going with this?
We've got quite enough bandwidth for the basic web. We're
nowhere close to exhausting all the useful applications of the
current bandwidth. The main applications waiting in the wings for
more bandwidth are most certainly almost entirely discretionary
expenses.
Record player manufacturers are not common carriers obligated to
provide universal service. Right now, the "more
bandwidth" folks look a lot like folks in the recording
industry.
I don't even want to talk about a build-out of additional
bandwidth until the capitalists waiting to use it start talking
about serious, useful applications as the dominant use.
Also, and as a kind of footnote: you don't strengthen your
case by trying to embarrass us with comparisons to those other
nations that "leapfrogged" us. There are many other
metrics to consider other than just average and median bandwidth.
Robustness is a good one. I think we are quite far ahead --
quite! -- by that metric. And, gee, wasn't that one of the
goals?
Slow and steady wins the race. It isn't that more bandwidth
is bad. It's just not time quite yet. There's other stuff
to clean up first. Cake will be served for dessert and not
sooner!
Oh, and: we could put a 4x4 on the moon inside a year if it
really mattered.
There are a lot of jobs in the U.S. that amount to not much more
than paper shuffling and talking on the telephone. From a
technical perspective, they could be done entirely at home with
decent bandwidth.
The current amount of bandwidth that I have (8 Mbps down, 1 Mbps
up) is adequate for most of what I do. I could really stand
to get 2 Mbps up, but that isn't my issue. My biggest
issue is that this bandwidth isn't considered critical
infrastructure.
If my power goes out, ComEd will have someone out to my house
within an hour or so, barring major disasters that stretch their
resources. This is any day of the week, any time of the
day.
If my analog telephone line goes out, AT&T will be on it
immediately.
If my cable service goes out, the last time Comcast told me
"We can have someone out there Thursday, between 2:00 and
5:00 p.m.". This was on a Monday. I am no longer
with Comcast.
Critical infrastructure means if things stop working, people
hop. Shop doesn't close on weekends, evenings or
holidays.
Yes, I am aware that I can pay for a business line with an SLA,
and I've considered it. But, right now, they are too
expensive.
What the U.S. needs isn't necessarily 100 MBps symmetrical
connections for $50 per month. What we need is 10 Mbps
symmetrical connections that are considered critical
infrastructure for $50 per month. That would allow
proper telecommuting, even if only part of the time.
Then you could do things like VPN into the "office" and
have access to the corporate storage; your office phone would
connect up via VoIP; all the benefits of being on the corporate
LAN would extend out to the teleoffice.
Not really. It depends on what is in your contract.
If they're selling you pure bandwidth, then yes. If
they have Terms of Service other than uptime and QoS, then
no. Common carrier status would be the wise move, and is
something I look for.
SpeakEasy is starting to offer 5x5 and 10x10 symetrical
connections (in Mbps) as what they call their Business
Ethernet. It is really bonded DSL, from what I can see, but
their main sell is liberal ToS and rock-solid uptime.
Unfortunately the cost is $849 or $1,249 per month.
I will issue a challenge, and defy anyone to find anyone for
whom "the internet" was actually just a cost
centre.
I will issue a challenge like this because I've issued it
before, and won it before, and always on the same terms, with the
subject saying "well, you know, I've never really looked
at it like that before."
Not that I really understand what a 'cost centre' is to
begin with. I'm guessing that it means that the interweb is
just a sunk cost with no benefit to the individual that pays for
it.
Which, as always in my one trick pony kind of way, brings us to
the basic axiom that humans act to better their lot in life. In
this case it would mean that by observing that someone has an
internet connection it would be safe to assume that they derive
some benefit over not having an internet connection or else they
would, in fact, not have an internet connection.
Where your logic breaks down is assuming that because a gigabit
connection could benefit someone that this person
must have a gigabit connection even if it isn't
important enough for them to want it in the first place or want
it enough to pay the full cost to acquire and maintain it.
I'm sure the financial institutions or Microsoft or even the
people who sell you the CNC stuff all have exactly enough
bandwidth to do what it is they do in the most efficient manner
possible. How do they determine 'the most efficient manner
possible' one may ask, by taking the cost of the service and
determining the benefit they will receive through this measure
that's called 'profit'.
If one were to take away this 'profit' yardstick and just
provide some arbitrary level of universal service then there
would be no way to determine 'the most efficient manner
possible'. It's the old Economic Calculation Problem that
y'all central planners have never been able to overcome or in
all likelihood will never be able to solve without reprogramming
the human brain to turn everyone into the New Socialist Man.
I, for one, do not welcome our dystopian future overlords...too
much of an Aldus Huxley fan for that.
And, you know, the whole flawed public goods theory and proof by
example argument you present in support of your basic assumption.
So basically, nobody can see a need for gigabit fibre to the home
as a Universal Service, 640k is enough for anyone, and all that.
Others are saying large nodes (MS) feeding small nodes (users)
have all the bandwidth they need, so where is the problem.
Charles sort of gets it, if his power goes out, it is a priority,
if his internet goes out, we'll try and get a guy around next
week.
Me, I'm just going to throw my hands up in hopeless despair,
I'm getting the exact same comments we were getting back in
the modem days, who needs an always on connection, who needs 512
kbit, bonded 64 kbit ISDN is enough (yes, really, no shit) for a
company office with 75 employees...
Run a fibre between point A and point B and that is pretty much
it, it is ducted wireless with no leakage, want more throughput,
change the laser, running a thousand gigabit channels costs the
same in throughput costs as running empty, to all intents and
purposes.
The cost per megabit, and it is just ones and zeros don't
forget, not real physical stuff, drops to essentially zero,
watershed moment.
So yes, I can stream 1920 x 1080, or maybe even wall sized 3840 x
2160, and instead of wallpaper I can have a live view of the
serengheti, or maybe niagara, or maybe earthrise.
Screw the phone, I can sit there on my sofa and sociaalise with
other people sat on their sofa.
Teaching? anyone? The virtual classroom becomes a reality, just
tune in to my channel.
So basically, nobody can see a need for gigabit fibre to the
home as a Universal Service, 640k is enough for anyone, and all
that.
No, what I've been saying across multiple articles is
'nice to have' doesn't seamlessly translate into
'critical to have' no matter how much you sugarcoat it.
Me, I'm just going to throw my hands up in hopeless
despair, I'm getting the exact same comments we were getting
back in the modem days, who needs an always on connection, who
needs 512 kbit, bonded 64 kbit ISDN is enough (yes, really, no
shit) for a company office with 75 employees...
And when it was discovered that this level of bandwidth was
insufficient for the task at hand the Bandwidth Fairy waved her
magic wand?
Or was it the interested parties who had a direct stake in the
matter got together and agreed to contract for a higher level of
service and ipso facto the needed bandwidth was produced
out of the ether?
Ignoring Gore and his Magic Bandwidth Wand when he was in
congress of course. Which turned out to be a giant subsidity for
google when they bought up all that overproduced dark-fiber at
bargain basement prices if I'm not mistaken on the funding
method to lay all that cable.
Teaching? anyone? The virtual classroom becomes a reality,
just tune in to my channel.
Yeah, the monopoly providers of 'education' are going to
love that...
Fibre 3 - it's a cost centre / discretionary expense
Thomas may have come late to the party, but he finally rung the bell that nobody else touched.
This says that we aren't all getting fibred up the wazoo because quite frankly the internet is just a discretionary expense, and while it is quite common for a household to "make a return" of having a telephone, a car, paying rent etc, that isn't the case for the intarweb.
Thomas goes on to say that he basically has enough bandwidth now for the Internet.
Thomas is right, this is the reason it isn't seen as a priority by anyone, and why calling the cable company to report loss of the internet is always going to be a low priority compared to reporting loss of the TV sports channels.
It really isn't that important, which is why it is quite easy to dismiss the whole idea due to the vast size of the USA and low population density.
We have just created the self perpetuating myth.
I will issue a challenge, and defy anyone to find anyone for whom "the internet" was actually just a cost centre.
I will issue a challenge like this because I've issued it before, and won it before, and always on the same terms, with the subject saying "well, you know, I've never really looked at it like that before."
E-mail alone ensures that home internet is exactly like business internet, and not a cost centre.
"Ah, but if I didn't have the internet I wouldn't be emailing so much!" yeah, and if you didn't have a car you wouldn't be driving everywhere, specious argument.
I am currently converting my mill and lathe to CNC control, and make no mistake, none of that would be possible at anywhere near the actual cost if it weren't for the internet connection at home, not just sourcing parts or info, or buying software and having it electronically delivered.
If the only way to find out about and buy Linux (insert distro flavour of choice here) was to buy a dead tree magazine that the distro paid for advertising space in, then send off a cheque, possibly internationally, then wait for the postman to deliver a CD, well folks, Linux would cost just about exactly the same as Windows.
Linux in particular and Open Source software in general is a child of the internet, before the internet (and I remember it well) the closest you could come was your local shareware library vendor, sneakernet on floppy.
No internet doesn't just mean no Linux as we know it, it means no alternative to the 200 dollar operating system and 200 dollar per suite of application software as we know it.
Bill Gates spectacularly under-estimated the impact of the internet in the Windows Chicago era, really, this was an error of judgement on a par with IBM granting MicroSoft that infamous licence.
Today, to say that phat pipes to the home as a Universal Service is not necessary is quite frankly an error of judgement on just as grand a scale.
Just look at us all posting and replying here, before the internet there was the BBS, and before that there was putting a stamp on an envelope and writing a letter to the editor, and then buying the paper again to see if your letter had been published.
To make the claim, as Thomas has, that the pipes we have are fat enough (even Zog on dial up) for "The Internet" is to get the picture hung upside down, this is a clear case of making an assumption that the pipes were built sufficient to carry the content out there, when what actually happened was the content always lead the pipe capacity, and all that has happened NOW is that generally speaking (500 kilobyte home pages aside) one specific form of content, namely http web page text publishing, is mature enough that most pipes, even Zog's, can carry it adequately.
To declare that this is a watershed, and "sufficient" is like declaring that the weekly Cunard sailing from Liverpool to the USA is enough and sufficient. Stop the world, I want to get off.
Back when I was paying a 5 pence connection charge and a penny a minute to connect at 9,600 baud to fido and we were talking about this new fangled internet thing over the horizon then yeah, Thomas was right, it was indeed a money pit, which is why only the self selected few were online, and boy I can remember the first time I met an actual woman who felt the same way, weird.
By the time xDLS always on connections came along however the net had ceased to become a money pit, at that point on balance the net saved you more money that it cost you to maintain a certain standard of living.
Every year since then as the inflation adjusted cost per X-abyte transferred has fallen that particular bit of mathematics has made the net an ever better bargain investment, speaking personally the net has both earned and saved me more money than everything else combined.
But Thomas is right, in that he is indeed stating a common perception of the truth, that the net is an expense, and not a vital one at that, and it is from that common conception that we can form opinions such as the one that states that due to the vast size of the USA it is simply unrealistic to expect everyone to get fibred up.
When I state quite plainly that this is the exact same size country that has utility electric running everywhere and metalled roads running everywhere it gets dismissed, because everyone thinks the net is just an expense, not an essential part of civilisation like roads or power.
No Thomas, I do not pretend to know what you would do with a gigabit up/down for 50 bucks a month, and more than a buggy whip maker would have known what use an interstate would be, or a candlemaker would have known what use a 3 phase supply would have been, or the pony express riders would know what use direct dialled telephones would be.
Saying we cannot afford to run gigabit to everyone is like saying we can't afford to run roads to everyone or electric to everyone IF YOU LOOK AT THEM FROM THE SAME ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE, it would be utterly insane to build a nationwide electrical grid if there were no domestic electrical goods or industrial electrical equipment available for purchase, and utterly insane to build a nationwide road grid if there were no vehicles.
SURE, we can let the markets work it out, growth and sales moving hand in hand, slowly, slowly, slowly.
OR, you can adopt a "build it and they will come" mentality, also known as an industrial revolution, so the only question really is, "where do you want your kids to grow up?" Some third world technological backwater where everything you can shake a stick at is expensive unobtanium, or a modern country where pretty much anything is available at reasonable cost?
BT offered to roll out nationwide fibre 20+ years ago.
STOP AND THINK!
In 1998 when technology companies were springing up all over the planet, think of an alternate world where you could, at great expense, connect computers at 9600 baud, or at serious expense a staggering 32 kilobit leased line, or you could go to this island nation in europe where they were rolling out fibre and man, the speeds were just insane, and getting insaner all the time as laser development progressed, you know? that file that you just took four days to transfer would take, like, 2 minutes or something insane like that.
Every financial institution on the planet would be there for a start, because not being there meant an active disadvantage compared to those who were there.
High tech industry, that's a given, Microsoft would just move, so would Cisco, IBM and Intel, sure, might leave the fabs in "third world technology" countries to save money..
The whole CNC industry, that's a given.
The entire mobile phone industry, that's a given.
Those asian "tiger" economies... yeah.
Thatcher's decision to stop BT from rolling out fibre in exchange for being able to shove telly down it too was by far the costliest economic mistake ever made in this country, and quite frankly it is not like it wasn't obviously a stupid mistake at the time too.
Now WE are sitting here with our thumbs up our asses nodding sagely that it is just too expensive and not needed anyway, meanwhile other nations have leapfrogged us and the inevitable results of that are incubating in their 100 megabit and up networks, and we thing the new hybrid hummer and KFC recipe and reality tv show is going to power us economically into the 2010's and 2020's.....
you want to know where that kind of "well the US is just too big to fibre up" thinking gets you?
nearly FORTY years ago you could put a 4x4 on the moon, now you're reduced to hitch-hiking lifts off the russkies, and hoping they don't think you smell to bad to catch a ride because you've been playing in georgia.